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Credit and economic recovery

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  • Michael Biggs
  • Thomas Mayer
  • Andreas Pick
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    Abstract

    It has become almost a stylized fact that after financial crises, economic activity recovers without a rebound in credit. We investigate the relationship between credit and economic activity over the business cycle. In a simple model we show that a rebound in the flow of credit has closer relationship with economic recovery than a rebound in the stock of credit. Using data from developed and emerging market countries we find that the flow of credit has a higher correlation with GDP than the stock of credit, in particular during recovery periods from financial crises.

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    File URL: http://www.dnb.nl/binaries/Working%20paper%20218_tcm46-220409.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 218.

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    Date of creation: Jul 2009
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    Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:218

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    1. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2008. "Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison," Scholarly Articles 11129156, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    2. Jan F. Kiviet & Jerzy Niemczyk, 2006. "The Asymptotic and Finite Sample Distributions of OLS and Simple IV in Simultaneous Equations," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-078/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Marco Terrones & M. Ayhan Kose & Stijn Claessens, 2008. "What Happens During Recessions, Crunches, and Busts?," IMF Working Papers 08/274, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi & Guillermo A Calvo, 2006. "Phoenix miracles in emerging markets: recovering without credit from systemic financial crises," BIS Working Papers 221, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-76, June.
    6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Sudden Stops and Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 405-410, May.
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    Cited by:
    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Droht in Deutschland eine Kreditklemme?," Kiel Discussion Papers 472/473, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    2. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Ortega, Eva & Valderrama, Maria Teresa, 2012. "Heterogeneity and cross-country spillovers in macroeconomic-financial linkages," Working Paper Series 1498, European Central Bank.
    3. Forte, Antonio, 2012. "Italy after the crisis: a case of recoveryless credit growth," MPRA Paper 35775, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Erholung der Weltkonjunktur ohne große Dynamik," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32955, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    5. Lahura, Erick & Vega, Hugo, 2011. "El Impulso Crediticio y el PBI en el Perú: 1992–2009," Working Papers 2011-001, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

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