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Listening to loan officers: the impact of commercial credit standards on lending and output

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Author Info
Cara S. Lown
Donald P. Morgan
Sonali Rohatgi

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Abstract

Over most of the last thirty-three years, the Federal Reserve has polled a small number of bank loan officers about their moves to tighten or ease commercial credit standards. Although the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey uses a small sample and gathers only qualitative information, it proves to be a useful tool in predicting changes in commercial lending and output. The authors find a strong correlation between tighter credit standards and slower loan growth and output, even after controlling for credit demand and other predictors of lending and output. The analysis also shows that the loan officer reports can help predict narrower measures of business activity, including inventory investment and industrial production.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its journal Economic Policy Review.

Volume (Year): (2000)
Issue (Month): Jul ()
Pages: 1-16
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednep:y:2000:i:jul:p:1-16:n:v.6no.2

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Related research
Keywords: Bank loans ; Business cycles ; Forecasting;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Jason Bram & Sydney Ludvigson, 1998. "Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure? a sentiment index horse race," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jun, pages 59-78. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Kashyap, Anil K & Lamont, Owen A & Stein, Jeremy C, 1994. "Credit Conditions and the Cyclical Behavior of Inventories," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(3), pages 565-92, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Blinder, Alan S & Maccini, Louis J, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Stacey L. Schreft & Raymond E. Owens, 1991. "Survey evidence of tighter credit conditions: what does it mean?," Working Paper 91-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Working Papers 95-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Kashyap, Anil K & Stein, Jeremy C & Wilcox, David W, 1993. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 78-98, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Jonathan McCarthy, 1997. "Debt, delinquencies, and consumer spending," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Feb. [Downloadable!]
  9. repec:fip:fedreq:y:1991:i:mar:p:29-34:n:v.77no.2 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Ben S. Bernanke & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "The Credit Crunch," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1991-2), pages 205-248. [Downloadable!]
  11. John V. Duca, 1995. "Credit availability, bank consumer lending, and consumer durables," Working Papers 95-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  12. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-92, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2004. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," SIFR Research Report Series 27, Institute for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Glenn Hoggarth & Ricardo Reis & Victoria Saporta, . "Costs of banking system instability: some empirical evidence," Bank of England working papers 144, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Ondra Kamenik & Ioan Carabenciov & Igor Ermolaev & Charles Freedman & Dmitry Korshunov & Jared Laxton & Douglas Laxton & Michel Juillard, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 08/279, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Zhang, Zhipeng, 2009. "Who Pulls the Plug? Theory and Evidence on Corporate Bankruptcy Decisions," MPRA Paper 17676, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Oct 2009. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ferre De Graeve, 2008. "The external finance premium and the macroeconomy: US post-WWII evidence," Working Papers 0809, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Thomas J. Cunningham, 2006. "The predictive power of the Senior Loan Officer Survey: do lending officers know anything special?," Working Paper 2006-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ondra Kamenik & Ioan Carabenciov & Igor Ermolaev & Charles Freedman & Dmitry Korshunov & Douglas Laxton & Michel Juillard, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy," IMF Working Papers 08/278, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Klaus Gugler & Dennis C. Mueller & B. Burcin Yurtoglu, 2005. "The determinants of merger waves," Working Papers 05-15, Utrecht School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Zhang, Zhipeng, 2009. "Recovery Rates and Macroeconomic Conditions: The Role of Loan Covenants," MPRA Paper 17521, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ondra Kamenik & Ioan Carabenciov & Igor Ermolaev & Charles Freedman & Dmitry Korshunov & Jared Laxton & Douglas Laxton & Michel Juillard, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices," IMF Working Papers 08/280, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Bernd Hofmann, 2005. "Procyclicality: The Macroeconomic Impact of Risk-Based Capital Requirements," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 179-200, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. R. Alton Gilbert & Gregory E. Sierra, 2002. "Financial condition of community banks," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2002-07, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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