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Identifying the macroeconomic effect of loan supply shocks

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Author Info
Joe Peek
Eric S. Rosengren
Geoffrey M. B. Tootell

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Abstract

Evidence of an operative credit channel has been inconclusive. The inability to clearly distinguish the effects of shocks to loan supply from those to loan demand has made it difficult to quantify the importance of this transmission mechanism to the economy. This paper provides an innovative approach to identifying loan supply shocks that enables us to show that such disturbances have had economically important effects on the U.S. economy over the past two decades. We provide three different pieces of evidence that confirm that loan supply shocks have been successfully isolated from shifts in loan demand: Our measure is particularly important for explaining inventory movements, the component of GDP most likely to be sensitive to shifts in bank loan supply; the effect is present even during periods of strong loan demand; and the effect does not dissipate quickly, as would be the case for demand shocks.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its series Working Papers with number 00-2.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:00-2

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Keywords: Monetary policy;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric, 1995. "Bank regulation and the credit crunch," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 679-692, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Robert DeYoung & Mark J. Flannery & William W. Lang & Sorin M. Sorescu, 1998. "The informational advantage of specialized monitors: the case of bank examiners," Working Paper Series WP-98-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  5. Leeper, Eric M., 1997. "Narrative and VAR approaches to monetary policy: Common identification problems," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 641-657, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 1999. "Is bank supervision central to central banking?," Working Papers 99-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Ramey, Valerie A, 1989. "Inventories as Factors of Production and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 338-54, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-76, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Robert E. Carpenter & Steven M. Fazzari & Bruce C. Petersen, 1994. "Inventory Investment, Internal-Finance Fluctuation, and the Business Cycle," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1994-2), pages 75-138. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Franklin R. Edwards & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "The decline of traditional banking: implications for financial stability and regulatory policy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 27-45. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Robert E. Carpenter & Steven M. Fazzari & Bruce C. Petersen, 1994. "Inventory (Dis)Investment, Internal Finance Fluctuations, and the Business Cycle," Macroeconomics 9401001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  16. Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 309-40, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Blinder, Alan S & Maccini, Louis J, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Kashyap, Anil K & Stein, Jeremy C & Wilcox, David W, 1993. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 78-98, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Hoover, Kevin D. & Perez, Stephen J., 1994. "Post hoc ergo propter once more an evaluation of 'does monetary policy matter?' in the spirit of James Tobin," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 47-74, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Morgan, Donald P, 1998. "The Credit Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence Using Loan Commitments," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(1), pages 102-18, February.
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Cara S. Lown & Donald P. Morgan, 2002. "Credit effects in the monetary mechanism," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 217-235. [Downloadable!]
  2. Daniel Kanda, 2006. "Credit Flows, Fiscal Policy, and the External Deficit of Bosnia and Herzegovina," IMF Working Papers 06/276, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Vincent Bouvatier & Laetitia Lepetit, 2006. "Banks'procyclicality behavior : does provisioning matter ?," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla06035, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Burton A. Abrams & Margaret Z. Clarke & Russell F. Settle, 2003. "Do Banks Matter? A Credit View Model for Small Open Economies," Working Papers 03-13, University of Delaware, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Juri Marcucci & Mario Quagliariello, . "Is Bank Portfolio Riskiness Procyclical? Evidence from Italy using a Vector Autoregression," Discussion Papers 05/09, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Ursel Baumann & Glenn Hoggarth & Darren Pain, . "The substitution of bank for non-bank corporate finance: evidence for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 274, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  7. Fabian Valencia, 2008. "Banks' Precautionary Capital and Credit Crunches," IMF Working Papers 08/248, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Caterina Mendicino, 2005. "Credit Market Development, Asset Prices and Business Cycle," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 74, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ryan R. Brady, 2007. "Consumer Credit, Liquidity and the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy," Departmental Working Papers 20, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2004. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," SIFR Research Report Series 27, Institute for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Bessler, David & Leatham, David J. & Yang, Juan, 2005. "In Search of the "Bank Lending Channel": Causality Analysis for the Transmission Mechanism of U.S. Monetary Policy," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19558, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
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