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Channels of Monetary Policy in a Transition Country: Hungary

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Author Info
Barran, Fernando (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES); Central Bank of Uruguay)
Kegels, Chantal (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))
Abstract

In the last years, Hungary recorded huge current deficits. These results may endanger the capacity of repayment of the outstanding debt and thus its access to international financial markets. We analyze how domestic credit market conditions have affected the current account performance. Implementing Granger-causality tests on time series data over the period 1990-1994, we find that current account performance was negatively affected by credit contraction. Furthermore, using desegregated data on credit, we are able to show that credit to small enterprises is highly significant to explain current account performance as well as the level of unemployment.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) in its series Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) with number 1996016.

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Length: 25
Date of creation: 01 Jun 1996
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Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:1996016

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Keywords: Transition; monetary policy; crowding-out effect; Hungary;

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Guillermo Calvo & Fabrizio Coricelli, 1992. "Output Collapse in Eastern Europe - The Role of Credit," IMF Working Papers 92/64, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Kornai, Janos, 1993. "The Evolution of Financial Discipline under the Postsocialist System," Kyklos, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(3), pages 315-36.
  3. Friedman, Benjamin M, 1988. "Monetary Policy without Quantity Variables," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 440-45, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Friedman, Benjamin M., 1983. "Monetary policy with a credit aggregate target," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 117-147, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-76, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1990. "New Evidence on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1990-1), pages 149-214. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kashyap, Anil K & Lamont, Owen A & Stein, Jeremy C, 1994. "Credit Conditions and the Cyclical Behavior of Inventories," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(3), pages 565-92, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Donald P. Morgan, 1992. "Bank loan commitments and the lending view of monetary policy," Research Working Paper 92-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  9. Judith A. Chevalier & David S. Scharfstein, 1994. "Capital Market Imperfections and Countercyclical Markups: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Working Papers 95-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1993. " The Role of Credit Market Imperfections in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Arguments and Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 95(1), pages 43-64.
    Other versions:
  12. Hochreiter, Eduard & Rovelli, Riccardo & Winckler, Georg, 1996. "Central banks and seigniorage: A study of three economies in transition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 629-643, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Kashyap, Anil K & Stein, Jeremy C & Wilcox, David W, 1993. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 78-98, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Dariusz K. Rosati, 1994. "Output decline during transition from plan to market: a reconsideration," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 2(4), pages 419-441, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  18. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1993. "Credit channel or credit actions? an interpretation of the postwar transmission mechanism," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 71-149.
    Other versions:
  19. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1983. "Monetary Policy with a Credit Aggregate Target," NBER Working Papers 0980, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-92, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Enrico C Perotti, 1994. "A taxonomy of post-socialist financial systems: decentralized enforcement and the creation of inside money," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 2(1), pages 71-81, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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