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Identifying the Macroeconomic Effect of Loan Supply Shocks

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Author Info
 Peek, Joe
Rosengren, Eric S
Tootell, Geoffrey M B

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Abstract

The inability to clearly distinguish the effects of shocks to loan supply from those to loan demand has made it difficult to quantify the economic importance of the credit channel in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. This study provides an innovative approach to identifying loan supply shocks. Three different results confirm that loan supply shocks have been successfully isolated from shifts in loan demand. Our measure is particularly important for explaining inventory movements, the component of GDP most dependent on bank lending; the effect is present even during periods with strong loan demand; and the effect remains even when the unpredictable part of the loan supply shock is isolated. This identification enables us to show that loan supply shocks have had economically important effects on the U.S. economy.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 35 (2003)
Issue (Month): 6 (December)
Pages: 931-46
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:35:y:2003:i:6:p:931-46

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric, 1995. "Bank regulation and the credit crunch," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 679-692, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Robert DeYoung & Mark J. Flannery & William W. Lang & Sorin M. Sorescu, 1998. "The informational advantage of specialized monitors: the case of bank examiners," Working Paper Series WP-98-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Ramey, Valerie A, 1989. "Inventories as Factors of Production and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 338-54, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ryan R. Brady, 2007. "Consumer Credit, Liquidity and the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy," Departmental Working Papers 20, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2004. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," SIFR Research Report Series 27, Institute for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Juri Marcucci & Mario Quagliariello, . "Is Bank Portfolio Riskiness Procyclical? Evidence from Italy using a Vector Autoregression," Discussion Papers 05/09, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Fabian Valencia, 2008. "Banks' Precautionary Capital and Credit Crunches," IMF Working Papers 08/248, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Caterina Mendicino, 2005. "Credit Market Development, Asset Prices and Business Cycle," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 74, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  6. Bessler, David & Leatham, David J. & Yang, Juan, 2005. "In Search of the "Bank Lending Channel": Causality Analysis for the Transmission Mechanism of U.S. Monetary Policy," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19558, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  7. Daniel Kanda, 2006. "Credit Flows, Fiscal Policy, and the External Deficit of Bosnia and Herzegovina," IMF Working Papers 06/276, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Cara S. Lown & Donald P. Morgan, 2002. "Credit effects in the monetary mechanism," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 217-235. [Downloadable!]
  9. Vincent Bouvatier & Laetitia Lepetit, 2006. "Banks'procyclicality behavior : does provisioning matter ?," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla06035, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
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  10. Burton A. Abrams & Margaret Z. Clarke & Russell F. Settle, 2003. "Do Banks Matter? A Credit View Model for Small Open Economies," Working Papers 03-13, University of Delaware, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Ursel Baumann & Glenn Hoggarth & Darren Pain, . "The substitution of bank for non-bank corporate finance: evidence for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 274, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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