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An Empirical Analysis of the Output Declines in Three Eastern European Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Eduardo Borensztein

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Dimitri G. Demekas

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Jonathan D. Ostry

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

The declines in economic activity experienced by Bulgaria, the Czech and Slovak Federal Republic, and Romania in the period since market-oriented reforms were initiated are analyzed. After reviewing developments in these three countries, the paper empirically investigates two questions that are central to an interpretation of the output decline. First, to what extent does the output fall reflect "structural change," or a reallocation of resources across sectors, rather than a conventional macroeconomic recession? Second, to what extent have demand-side or supply-side forces been dominant in generating the output decline?

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo Borensztein & Dimitri G. Demekas & Jonathan D. Ostry, 1993. "An Empirical Analysis of the Output Declines in Three Eastern European Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 1-31, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:40:y:1993:i:1:p:1-31
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2016. "Hyperinflation bulgare de 1997 : transition, fragilité bancaire et change," CEPN Working Papers 2016-13, Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord.
    2. Debra Patterson, 1999. "An open-economy transition model," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 24-36, February.
    3. Anna Maria Ferragina & Francesco Pastore, 2008. "Mind The Gap: Unemployment In The New Eu Regions," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 73-113, February.
    4. Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2017. "Bulgaria’s hyperinflation in 1997: transition, banking fragility and foreign exchange," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 313-335, July.
    5. Papazoglou, Christos & Pentecost, Eric J., 2004. "The dynamic adjustment of a transition economy in the early stages of transformation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 547-561, September.
    6. Barbone, Luca & Marchetti, Jr., Domenico & Paternostro, Stefano, 1996. "Structural adjustment, ownership transformation, and size in Polish industry," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1624, The World Bank.
    7. Malinka Koparanova, 2007. "Structural Changes in the Manufacturing Industry of Transition Economies," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 3-42.
    8. Bulir, Ales, 1998. "Business Cycle in Czechoslovakia under Central Planning: Were Credit Shocks Causing It?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 226-245, June.
    9. Bhaduri, Amit, 1996. "Dynamic patterns in transformation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 281-297, September.
    10. Jacek Rostowski, 1995. "Investment in Post-communist Economies. Real Facts and Keynesian Myths," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0063, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    11. Bennett, John & Dixon, Huw David, 1995. "Macroeconomic equilibrium and reform in a transitional economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 1465-1485, October.
    12. Ariane Tichit, 1998. "Reprise économique dans les pays post-communistes : application d'un modèle de durée," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 136(5), pages 73-92.
    13. Debra Moore Patterson, 1996. "Reform in Eastern Europe: A General Equilibrium Model with Distortions in Relative Prices and Factor Markets," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(2), pages 457-472, May.
    14. Jones, Derek & Klinedinst, Mark & Rock, Charles, 1998. "Productive Efficiency during Transition: Evidence from Bulgarian Panel Data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 446-464, September.
    15. Raiser, Martin, 1994. "Ein tschechisches Wunder? Zur Rolle politikinduzierter Anreizstrukturen im Transformationsprozeß," Kiel Discussion Papers 233, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    16. Bose, Pinaki & Kemme, David M., 2002. "Liberalization, entry and product quality in transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 353-366, December.
    17. Luca Barbone & Domenico Marchetti, 1995. "Transition and the fiscal crisis in Central Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 3(1), pages 59-74, March.
    18. Barran, Fernando & Kegels, Chantal, 1996. "Channels of Monetary Policy in a Transition Country: Hungary," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 1996016, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies
    • P5 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems

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