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Macroeconometric Modelling with a Global Perspective

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  • M. Hashem Pesaran
  • Ron P. Smith

Abstract

This paper provides a synthesis and further development of a global modelling approach introduced in Pesaran, Schuermann and Weiner (2004), where country specific models in the form of VARX* structures are estimated relating a vector of domestic variables, xit, to their foreign counterparts, x*it, and then consistently combined to form a Global VAR (GVAR). It is shown that the VARX* models can be derived as the solution to a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model where over-identifying long-run theoretical relations can be tested and imposed if acceptable. This gives the system a transparent long-run theoretical structure. Similarly, short-run over-identifying theoretical restrictions can be tested and imposed if accepted. Alternatively, if one has less confidence in the short-run theory the dynamics can be left unrestricted. The assumption of the weak exogeneity of the foreign variables for the long-run parameters can be tested, where x*it variables can be interpreted as proxies for global factors. Rather than using deviations from ad hoc statistical trends, the equilibrium values of the variables reflecting the long-run theory embodied in the model can be calculated. This approach has been used in a wide variety of contexts and for a wide variety of purposes. The paper also provides some new results.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2006/wp-cesifo-2006-02/cesifo1_wp1659.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1659.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1659

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Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR); DSGE models; VARX*;

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References

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  1. Ben Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr S. Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422, January.
  2. Dées, Stéphane & di Mauro, Filippo & Pesaran, Hashem & Smith, Vanessa, 2005. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0568, European Central Bank.
  3. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2000. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 345, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(4), pages 1057-1084.
  5. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Bayesian Estimation of an Open Economy DSGE Model with Incomplete Pass-Through," Working Paper Series 179, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  6. Pesaran,H.M. & Shin,Y., 1995. "Long-Run Structural Modelling," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge 9419, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  7. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2012. "Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, number 9780199650460, October.
  8. Kapetanios, G. & Pesaran, M.H., 2005. "Alternative Approaches to Estimation and Inference in Large Multifactor Panels: Small Sample Results with an Application to Modelling of Asset Returns," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge 0520, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  9. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1997. "Structural Analysis of Vector Error Correction Models with Exogenous I(1) Variables," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge 9706, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  10. Til Schuermann & Björn-Jakob Treutler & Scott M. Weiner & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 995, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:3:p:530-36 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2005. "On the Fit and Forecasting Performance of New Keynesian Models," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 4848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Björn-Jakob Treutler, 2005. "Global Business Cycles and Credit Risk," CESifo Working Paper Series 1548, CESifo Group Munich.
  14. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Scott M. Weiner, 2001. "Modelling regional interdependencies using a global error-correcting macroeconometric model," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002, International Conferences on Panel Data B4-1, International Conferences on Panel Data.
  15. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  16. Anthony Garratt & Donald Robertson & Stephen Wright, 2005. "Permanent vs Transitory Components and Economic Fundamentals," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics 0501, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  17. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series 1331, CESifo Group Munich.
  18. Gianluca Lagana & Andrew Mountford, 2005. "Measuring Monetary Policy In The Uk: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression Model Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(s1), pages 77-98, 09.
  19. Binder,M. & Pesaran,H.M., 1995. "Multivariate Rational Expectations Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: A Review and Some New Results," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge 9415, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  20. Galí, Jordi & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 3346, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Clive, W.J. & Lin, Jin-Lung, 1995. "Causality in the Long Run," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(03), pages 530-536, June.
  22. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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