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The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey

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Author Info
Lown, Cara
Morgan, Donald P. () (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

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Abstract

VAR analysis on a measure of bank lending standards collected by the Federal Reserve reveals that shocks to lending standards are significantly correlated with innovations in commercial loans of banks and in real output. Credit standards strongly dominate loan rates in explaining variation in business loans and output. Standards remain significant when we include various proxies for loan demand, suggesting that part of the standards fluctuations can be identified with changes in loan supply. Standards are also significant in structural equations of some categories of inventory investment, a GDP component closely associated with bank lending. The estimated impact of a moderate tightening of standards on inventory investment is of the same order of magnitude as the decline in inventory investment over the typical recession.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for Financial Research in its series SIFR Research Report Series with number 27.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 15 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:hhs:sifrwp:0027

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Related research
Keywords: Credit crunch; Credit rationing; Credit standards; Loan officer survey;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  2. Michael C. Lovell, 1959. "Manufacturers' Inventories, Sales Expectations, and the Acceleration Principle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 86, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ramey, Valerie, 1993. "How important is the credit channel in the transmission of monetary policy?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 1-45, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Rajan, Raghuram G, 1994. "Why Bank Credit Policies Fluctuate: A Theory and Some Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 399-441, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 2000. "Identifying the macroeconomic effect of loan supply shocks," Working Papers 00-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Blinder, Alan S & Maccini, Louis J, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Financial intermediaries, financial stability, and monetary policy," Staff Reports 346, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  2. Vincent Bouvatier & Laetitia Lepetit, 2006. "Banks'procyclicality behavior : does provisioning matter ?," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla06035, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Jagjit S. Chadha & Luisa Corrado & Sean Holly, 2008. "Reconnecting Money to Inflation: The Role of the External Finance Premium," Studies in Economics 0816, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2008. "What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Hans Genberg, 2008. "The changing nature of financial intermediation and its implications for monetary policy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial market developments and their implications for monetary policy, volume 39, pages 100-113 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hott, Christian, 2009. "Banks and Real Estate Prices," Working Papers 2009-8, Swiss National Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Luc Laeven & Deniz Igan & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 2008. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," IMF Working Papers 08/106, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Georges Dionne & Pascal François & Olfa Maalaoui, 2009. "Detecting Regime Shifts in Corporate Credit Spreads," Cahiers de recherche 0929, CIRPEE. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ola Melander & Tamim Bayoumi, 2008. "Credit Matters: Empirical Evidence on U.S. Macro-Financial Linkages," IMF Working Papers 08/169, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Olfa Maalaoui & Georges Dionne & Pascal François, 2009. "Credit Spread Changes within Switching Regimes," Cahiers de recherche 0905, CIRPEE. [Downloadable!]
  11. Dell''Ariccia, Giovanni & Marquez, Robert, 2005. "Lending Booms and Lending Standards," CEPR Discussion Papers 5095, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Bruneau, C. & De Bandt, O., 2008. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Corporate Financial Fragility," Documents de Travail 226, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  13. Ákos Bakonyi & Dániel Homolya, 2009. "Backtesting the efficiency of MNB’s Lending Survey," MNB Bulletin, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 4(1), pages 6-14, May. [Downloadable!]
  14. Roger Hammersland and Dag Henning Jacobsen, 2008. "The Financial Accelerator: Evidence using a procedure of Structural Model Design," Discussion Papers 569, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
  15. Kierzenkowski, R. & Oung, V., 2007. "L’évolution des crédits à l’habitat en France : une grille d’analyse en termes de cycles," Documents de Travail 172, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
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