This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Hazardous times for monetary policy: What do twenty-three million bank loans say about the effects of monetary policy on credit risk-taking?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Gabriel Jiménez () (Banco de España)
Steven Ongena () (Center–Tilburg University)
José Luis Peydró () (European Central Bank)
Jesús Saurina () (Banco de España)
Abstract

We identify the impact of short-term interest rates on credit risk-taking by analyzing a comprehensive credit register from Spain, a country where for the last twenty years monetary policy was mostly decided abroad. Discrete choice, within borrower comparison and duration analyses show that lower overnight rates prior to loan origination lead banks to lend more to borrowers with a worse credit history and to grant more loans with a higher per period probability of default. Lower overnight rates during the life of the loan reduce this probability. Bank, borrower and market characteristics determine the impact of overnight rates on credit risk-taking.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bde.es/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/08/Fic/dt0833e.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, January 2009
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Banco de España in its series Banco de España Working Papers with number 0833.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0833

Contact details of provider:
Email:
Web page: http://www.bde.es/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (María D. González. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España).

Related research
Keywords: monetary policy; low interest rates; financial stability; lending standards; credit risk-taking; credit composition; business cycle; liquidity risk;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
    Other versions:
  2. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2002. "Does deposit insurance increase banking system stability? An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1373-1406, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2008. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the 2007 Mortgage Default Crisis," NBER Working Papers 13936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Charles Calomiris & Thanavut Pornrojnangkool, 2006. "Relationship Banking and the Pricing of Financial Services," NBER Working Papers 12622, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Bhattacharya, Sudipto, 1982. " Aspects of Monetary and Banking Theory and Moral Hazard," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(2), pages 371-84, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Diamond, Douglas W, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Working Papers 95-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Robert Marquez, 2006. "Lending Booms and Lending Standards," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2511-2546, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1993. " The Role of Credit Market Imperfections in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Arguments and Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 95(1), pages 43-64.
    Other versions:
  10. Treacy, William F. & Carey, Mark, 2000. "Credit risk rating systems at large US banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 167-201, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Kiminori Matsuyama, 2007. "Credit Traps and Credit Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 503-516, March. [Downloadable!]
  13. Ignacio Hernando & Jorge Martinez-Pages, 2001. "Is there a bank lending channel of monetary policy in Spain?," Working Paper Series 099, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  14. Edward I. Altman & Brooks Brady & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2005. "The Link between Default and Recovery Rates: Theory, Empirical Evidence, and Implications," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2203-2228, November. [Downloadable!]
  15. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Money in a Theory of Banking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 30-53, March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Bruce D. Smith, 2002. "Monetary Policy, Banking Crises, and the Friedman Rule," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 128-134, May. [Downloadable!]
  17. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Petersen, Mitchell A & Rajan, Raghuram G, 1994. " The Benefits of Lending Relationships: Evidence from Small Business Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 3-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 2003. "Bank supervision and corporate finance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3042, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  22. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2006. "On the Macroeconomics of Asset Shortages," NBER Working Papers 12753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Farinha, Luisa A. & Santos, Joao A. C., 2002. "Switching from Single to Multiple Bank Lending Relationships: Determinants and Implications," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 124-151, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. Delgado, J. & Salas, V. & Saurina, J., 2007. "Joint size and ownership specialization in bank lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3563-3583, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Luc Laeven & Deniz Igan & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 2008. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," IMF Working Papers 08/106, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  27. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  28. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  29. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Jesus, Saurina & Gabriel, Jimenez, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," MPRA Paper 718, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  31. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  32. Stewart C. Myers & Raghuram G. Rajan, 1998. "The Paradox of Liquidity," CRSP working papers 339, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    Other versions:
  33. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Benoît Mojon, 2008. "How Has the Euro Changed the Monetary Transmission?," NBER Working Papers 14190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  34. Ramón Adalid & Carsten Detken, 2007. "Liquidity shocks and asset price boom/bust cycles," Working Paper Series 732, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  35. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    Other versions:
  36. Jimenez, Gabriel & Saurina, Jesus, 2004. "Collateral, type of lender and relationship banking as determinants of credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2191-2212, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  37. Bhattacharya Sudipto & Chiesa Gabriella, 1995. "Proprietary Information, Financial Intermediation, and Research Incentives," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 328-357, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  38. Acharya, Viral V. & Bharath, Sreedhar T. & Srinivasan, Anand, 2007. "Does industry-wide distress affect defaulted firms? Evidence from creditor recoveries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 787-821, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  39. Jimenez, Gabriel & Salas, Vicente & Saurina, Jesus, 2006. "Determinants of collateral," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 255-281, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  40. Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-24, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  41. Oliver, Alfredo Martin & Fumas, Vicente Salas & Saurina, Jesus, 2006. "Risk premium and market power in credit markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(3), pages 450-456, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  42. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2004. "Collateral, type of lender and relationship banking as determinants of credit risk," Banco de España Working Papers 0414, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  43. Keeley, Michael C, 1990. "Deposit Insurance, Risk, and Market Power in Banking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1183-1200, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  44. Robert C.W. Fok & Yuan-Chen Chang & Wen-Tuz Lee, 2004. "Bank Relationships and Their Effects on Firm Performance Around the Asian Financial Crisis: Evidence from Taiwan," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 33(2), Summer.
  45. Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  46. Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 309-40, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  47. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  48. den Haan, Wouter J. & Sumner, Steven W. & Yamashiro, Guy M., 2007. "Bank loan portfolios and the monetary transmission mechanism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 904-924, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  49. Berger, Allen N & Udell, Gregory F, 1995. "Relationship Lending and Lines of Credit in Small Firm Finance," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 351-81, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  50. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  51. Martin Ruckes, 2004. "Bank Competition and Credit Standards," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(4), pages 1073-1102. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  52. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May. [Downloadable!]
  53. Grunert, Jens & Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2005. "The role of non-financial factors in internal credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 509-531, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? RePEc data is maintained by each archive holder on its own website. Nothing is held centrally.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-10.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.