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Credit cycles, credit risk, and prudential regulation

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  • Gabriel Jiménez

    ()
    (Banco de España)

  • Jesús Saurina

    ()
    (Banco de España)

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    Abstract

    This paper finds strong empirical support of a positive, although quite lagged, relationship between rapid credit growth and loan losses. Moreover, it contains empirical evidence of more lenient credit terms during boom periods, both in terms of screening of borrowers and in collateral requirements. Therefore, we confirm the predictions from theoretical models based on disaster myopia, herd behaviour institutional memory and agency problems between banks' managers and shareholders regarding the incentives of the former to engage in too expansionary credit policies during lending booms. The paper also develops a prudential tool, based on loan loss provisions, for banking regulators in order to cope with the former problem.

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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/05/Fic/dt0531e.pdf
    File Function: First version, October 2005
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 0531.

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    Length: 34 pages
    Date of creation: Oct 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0531

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    Web page: http://www.bde.es/
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    Related research

    Keywords: credit risk; lending cycles; loan loss provisions; bank capital; collateral;

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    References

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    1. Gary Gorton & Richard Rosen, . "Corporate Control, Portfolio Choice, and the Decline of Banking," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 2-93, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    2. Joseph P. Hughes & William Lang & Loretta J. Mester & Choon-Geol Moon, 1996. "Efficient banking under interstate branching," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 1045-1075.
    3. Tirole, Jean & Fudenberg, Drew, 1995. "A Theory of Income and Dividend Smoothing Based on Incumbency Rents," Scholarly Articles 3160494, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    4. Loretta J. Mester, 1989. "Testing for Expense Preference Behavior: Mutual versus Stock Savings and Loans," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 20(4), pages 483-498, Winter.
    5. J.A. Bikker & H. Hu, 2003. "Cyclical Patterns in Profits, Provisioning and Lending of Banks," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 86, Netherlands Central Bank.
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    7. Robert T. Clair, 1992. "Loan growth and loan quality: some preliminary evidence from Texas banks," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 9-22.
    8. Akella, Srinivas R. & Greenbaum, Stuart I., 1988. "Savings and loan ownership structure and expense-preference," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 419-437, September.
    9. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
    10. Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2001. "Loan loss provisioning and economic slowdowns : too much, too late?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2749, The World Bank.
    11. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2004. "Collateral, type of lender and relationship banking as determinants of credit risk," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0414, Banco de Espa�a.
    12. Rajan, Raghuram G, 1994. "Why Bank Credit Policies Fluctuate: A Theory and Some Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 399-441, May.
    13. Berger, Allen N. & Udell, Gregory F., 2004. "The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behavior," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 458-495, October.
    14. E. Philip Davis & Haibin Zhu, 2004. "Bank lending and commercial property cycles: some cross-country evidence," BIS Working Papers 150, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Saunders, Anthony & Strock, Elizabeth & Travlos, Nickolaos G, 1990. " Ownership Structure, Deregulation, and Bank Risk Taking," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-54, June.
    16. Crockett, A, 1997. "The Theory and Practice of Financial Stability," Princeton Essays in International Economics 203, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    17. Guttentag, Jack & Herring, Richard, 1984. " Credit Rationing and Financial Disorder," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1359-82, December.
    18. C. A.E. Goodhart, 2005. "Financial Regulation, Credit Risk and Financial Stability," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 192(1), pages 118-127, April.
    19. Simon Kwan & Robert Eisenbeis, 1997. "Bank Risk, Capitalization, and Operating Efficiency," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 117-131, October.
    20. Jimenez, Gabriel & Saurina, Jesus, 2004. "Collateral, type of lender and relationship banking as determinants of credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2191-2212, September.
    21. Larry D. Wall & Timothy W. Koch, 2000. "Bank loan-loss accounting: a review of theoretical and empirical evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 1-20.
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    Cited by:
    1. Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2006. "Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 06/149, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Dermine, J. & Neto de Carvalho, C., 2008. "Bank loan-loss provisioning, central bank rules vs. estimation: The case of Portugal," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 1-22, April.
    3. Mikhail Mamonov, 2013. "Bad management, skimping, or both? The relationship between cost efficiency and loan quality in Russian banks," HSE Working papers WP BRP 19/FE/2013, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    4. Adam Głogowski, 2008. "Macroeconomic determinants of Polish banks’ loan losses – results of a panel data study," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 53, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
    5. Solntsev, O. & Mamonov, M. & Pestova, A. & Magomedova, Z., 2011. "Experience in Developing Early Warning System for Financial Crises and the Forecast of Russian Banking Sector Dynamic in 2012," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 12, pages 41-76.

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