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What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?

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Author Info
Ben S. Bernanke
Kenneth N. Kuttner

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of changes in monetary policy on equity prices, with the objectives both of measuring the average reaction of the stock market and also of understanding the economic sources of that reaction. We find that, on average, a hypothetical unanticipated 25-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate target is associated with about a one percent increase in broad stock indexes. Adapting a methodology due to Campbell (1991) and Campbell and Ammer (1993), we find that the effects of unanticipated monetary policy actions on expected excess returns account for the largest part of the response of stock prices.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10402.

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Date of creation: Apr 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10402

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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  1. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2002. "Market-based measures of monetary policy expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Charles L. Evans & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1998. "Can VAR's describe monetary policy?," Working Paper Series WP-98-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Jon Faust & Eric Swanson & and Jonathan H. Wright, 2002. "Identifying vars based on high frequency futures data," International Finance Discussion Papers 720, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Joel T. Krueger & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1995. "The Fed funds futures rate as a predictor of Federal Reserve policy," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 95-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  6. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2003. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," NBER Working Papers 9509, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. " What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Thorbecke, Willem, 1997. " On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 635-54, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2002. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-4, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  10. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction Of Monetary Policy To The Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. repec:bep:maccon:v:4:y:2004:i:1:p:1246-1246 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2004. "Taking stock: monetary policy transmission to equity markets," Working Paper Series 354, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. d'Amico, Stefania & Mira Farka, 2003. "The Fed and Stock Market: A Proxy and Instrumental Variable Identification," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 52, Royal Economic Society. [Downloadable!]
  14. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-128. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Nelson, Charles R & Kim, Myung J, 1993. " Predictable Stock Returns: The Role of Small Sample Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 641-61, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. John Y. Campbell, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 3246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. John H. Boyd & Ravi Jagannathan & Jian Hu, 2001. "The Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News is Usually Good for Stocks," NBER Working Papers 8092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Demiralp, Selva & Jorda, Oscar, 2004. "The Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 387-405, June.
  20. William Poole & Robert H & Rasche & Daniel L. Thornton, 2002. "Market anticipations of monetary policy actions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 65-94. [Downloadable!]
  21. Jeff Fuhrer & Geoff Tootell, 2004. "Eyes on the prize: how did the Fed respond to the stock market?," Public Policy Discussion Paper 04-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Ray C. Fair, 2002. "Events That Shook the Market," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 713-732, October. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  25. Brandt, Michael W. & Wang, Kevin Q., 2003. "Time-varying risk aversion and unexpected inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1457-1498, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Shingo Goto, 2000. "The Fed's Effect on Excess Returns and Inflation is Much Bigger Than You Think," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1058, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  27. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "The Fed and Interest Rates: A High-Frequency Identification," NBER Working Papers 8839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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