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Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market

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  • Hilde C. Bjørnland

    ()
    (Norwegian School of Management (BI) and Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

  • Kai Leitemo

    ()
    (Norwegian School of Management (BI) and Bank of Finland)

Abstract

We estimate the interdependence between US monetary policy and the S&P 500 using structural VAR methodology. A solution is proposed to the simultaneity problem of identifying monetary and stock price shocks by using a combination of short-run and long-run restrictions that maintains the qualitative properties of a monetary policy shock found in the established literature (Christiano et al., 1999). We find great interdependence between interest rate setting and real stock prices. Real stock prices immediately fall by 7-9 percent due to a monetary policy shock that raises the federal funds rate by 100 basis points. A stock price shock increasing real stock prices by one percent leads to an increase in the interest rate of close to 4 basis points. 1) The capital adequacy ratio 2) Ratio of Residential mortgages to Gross lending 3) An expected loss measure 4) A concentration risk measure 5) The return on assets 6) Norges Bank’s liquidity indicator

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Norges Bank in its series Working Paper with number 2008/04.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 10 Apr 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2008_04

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Keywords: VAR; monetary policy; asset prices; identification.;

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