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Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words?The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements

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Author Info
Refet Gürkaynak
Brian Sack
Abstract

We investigate the effects of U.S. monetary policy on asset prices using a high-frequency event-study analysis. We test whether these effects are adequately captured by a single factor—changes in the federal funds rate target—and find that they are not. Instead, we find that two factors are required. These factors have a structural interpretation as a “current federal funds rate target†factor and a “future path of policy†factor, with the latter closely associated with FOMC statements. We measure the effects of these two factors on bond yields and stock prices using a new intraday dataset going back to 1990. According to our estimates, both monetary policy actions and statements have important but differing effects on asset prices, with statements having a much greater impact on longer-term Treasury yields

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 with number 323.

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Date of creation: 11 Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf5:323

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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  1. Andrew Swiston, 2007. "Where Have the Monetary Surprises Gone? The Effects of FOMC Statements," IMF Working Papers 07/185, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Mauricio Larraín, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 335, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  3. Claus Brand & Daniel Buncic & Jarkko Turunen, 2008. "The Impact of ECB Monetary Policy Decisions and Communication on the Yield Curve," Discussion Papers 2008-11, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales. [Downloadable!]
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  4. P. Siklos, M. Bohl, 2006. "Policy Words and Policy Deeds: The ECB and the Euro," Working Papers eg0050, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Monetary policy inertia: fact or fiction?," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2005-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," DNB Working Papers 170, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  7. David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Is a Word to the Wise Indeed Enough? ECB Statements and the Predictibility of Interest Rate Decisions," DNB Working Papers 075, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Carlo Rosa & Giovanni Verga, 2008. "The Impact of Central Bank Announcements on Asset Prices in Real Time," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 175-217, June. [Downloadable!]
  9. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2006. "Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections," NBER Working Papers 12638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Refet S. Gurkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Yash P. Mehra, 2006. "Inflation uncertainty and the recent low level of the long bond rate," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 225-253. [Downloadable!]
  12. THORBECKE, Willem & Hanjiang ZHANG, 2008. "Monetary Policy Surprises and Interest Rates: Choosing between the Inflation-Revelation and Excess Sensitivity Hypotheses," Discussion papers 08031, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
  13. William Whitesell, 2005. "An inflation goal with multiple reference measures," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-62, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  14. William Poole, 2005. "Understanding the term structure of interest rates," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 589-596. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Transparency, Disclosure, and the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 179-225, March. [Downloadable!]
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  16. James D. Hamilton, 2007. "Assessing Monetary Policy Effects Using Daily Fed Funds Futures Contracts," NBER Working Papers 13569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "US shocks and global exchange rate configurations," Working Paper Series 835, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Michael Woodford, 2005. "Central bank communication and policy effectiveness," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 399-474. [Downloadable!]
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