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The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the 2007 Mortgage Default Crisis

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Author Info
Atif Mian
Amir Sufi
Abstract

We demonstrate that a rapid expansion in the supply of mortgages driven by disintermediation explains a large fraction of recent U.S. house price appreciation and subsequent mortgage defaults. We identify the effect of shifts in the supply of mortgage credit by exploiting within-county variation across zip codes that differed in latent demand for mortgages in the mid 1990s. From 2001 to 2005, high latent demand zip codes experienced large relative decreases in denial rates, increases in mortgages originated, and increases in house price appreciation, despite the fact that these zip codes experienced significantly negative relative income and employment growth over this time period. These patterns for high latent demand zip codes were driven by a sharp relative increase in the fraction of loans sold by originators shortly after origination, a process which we refer to as "disintermediation." The increase in disintermediation-driven mortgage supply to high latent demand zip codes from 2001 to 2005 led to subsequent large increases in mortgage defaults from 2005 to 2007. Our results suggest that moral hazard on behalf of originators selling mortgages is a main culprit for the U.S. mortgage default crisis.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13936.

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Date of creation: Apr 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13936

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services
O51 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
R21 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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  1. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2005. "Urban Decline and Durable Housing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 345-375, April.
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  2. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misperceptions," NBER Working Papers 11643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2007. "Understanding the subprime mortgage crisis," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2007-05, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Stein, Jeremy C, 1995. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(2), pages 379-406, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Hurst, Erik & Stafford, Frank, 2004. "Home Is Where the Equity Is: Mortgage Refinancing and Household Consumption," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(6), pages 985-1014, December.
  6. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Mark Doms & Fred Furlong & John Krainer, 2007. "Subprime mortgage delinquency rates," Working Paper Series 2007-33, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  8. Holmstrom, Bengt & Tirole, Jean, 1997. "Financial Intermediation, Loanable Funds, and the Real Sector," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(3), pages 663-91, August.
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  9. Souphala Chomsisengphet & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2006. "The evolution of the subprime mortgage market," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 31-56. [Downloadable!]
  10. David Genesove & Christopher J. Mayer, 1994. "Equity and Time to Sale in the Real Estate Market," NBER Working Papers 4861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
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  1. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Cross-country causes and consequences of the 2008 crisis: early warning," Working Paper Series 2009-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Shane M. Sherlund, 2008. "The past, present, and future of subprime mortgages," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-63, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  3. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2009. "Hazardous times for monetary policy: What do twenty-three million bank loans say about the effects of monetary policy on credit risk-taking?," Banco de España Working Papers 0833, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  4. Tong, Hui & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2009. "The Misfortune of Non-financial Firms in a Financial Crisis: Disentangling Finance and Demand Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7208, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Yuliya Demyanyk, 2009. "Quick exits of subprime mortgages," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 79-94. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hui Tong & Shang-Jin Wei, 2008. "Real Effects of the Subprime Mortgage Crisis: Is it a Demand or a Finance Shock?," NBER Working Papers 14205, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Christopher J. Mayer & Karen M. Pence & Shane M. Sherlund, 2008. "The rise in mortgage defaults," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-59, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  8. Hui Tong & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "The Composition Matters: Capital Inflows and Liquidity Crunch during a Global Economic Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/164, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano & Marco di Maggio, 2008. "Households’ Indebtedness and Financial Fragility," CSEF Working Papers 208, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  10. Hui Tong & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "The Composition Matters: Capital Inflows and Liquidity Crunch during a Global Economic Crisis," NBER Working Papers 15207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Júlia Király & Márton Nagy & Viktor E. Szabó, 2008. "Contagion and the beginning of the crisis – pre-Lehman period," MNB Occasional Papers 2008/76, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
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