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High-Yield Bond Default And Call Risks

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  • Cynthia G. McDonald
  • Linda M. Van De Gucht
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    Abstract

    This paper empirically investigates high-yield bond default and call behavior using a competing risks hazard model that simultaneously estimates the impact of bond age, issue-specific characteristics and business conditions on both events. Results reveal nonmonotonic aging effects: default rates increase and then drop while call rates first increase and then level off. Rating and coupon size affect default risk, while maturity and issue size impact only call rates. Defaults are more likely when economic conditions have worsened and no improvement is anticipated. Calls are more likely when interest rates have decreased but are expected to rise. © 1999 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

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    File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/003465399558346
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

    Volume (Year): 81 (1999)
    Issue (Month): 3 (August)
    Pages: 409-419

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    Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:81:y:1999:i:3:p:409-419

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    Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/

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    Cited by:
    1. Darrell Duffie & Ke Wang, 2004. "Multi-Period Corporate Failure Prediction with Stochastic Covariates," NBER Working Papers 10743, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Sanjiv R. Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2007. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults Are Correlated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 93-117, 02.
    3. Darrel Duffie & Leandro Saita & Ke Wang, 2005. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-373, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    4. Gielens, K. & Dekimpe, M.G., 2004. "How To Seize a Window of Opportunity: The Entry Strategy of Retail Firms into Transition Economies," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2004-038-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
    5. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró-Alcalde, José Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2007. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty-Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6514, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Jean Helwege & Christo Pirinsky & René M. Stulz, 2007. "Why Do Firms Become Widely Held? An Analysis of the Dynamics of Corporate Ownership," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 995-1028, 06.
    7. Meeks, Roland, 2012. "Do credit market shocks drive output fluctuations? Evidence from corporate spreads and defaults," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 568-584.
    8. Michael Halling & Evelyn Hayden, 2008. "Bank failure prediction: a two-step survival time approach," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The IFC's contribution to the 56th ISI Session, Lisbon, August 2007, volume 28, pages 48-73 Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2009. "Hazardous times for monetary policy: What do twenty-three million bank loans say about the effects of monetary policy on credit risk-taking?," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0833, Banco de Espa�a.
    10. Baele, L. & Farooq, M. & Ongena, S., 2012. "Of Religion and Redemption: Evidence from Default on Islamic Loans (Replaces CentER DP 2010-136)," Discussion Paper 2012-014, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    11. Jens Hilscher & Mungo Wilson, 2011. "Credit ratings and credit risk," Working Papers 31, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
    12. Jonathan Witmer, 2008. "An Examination of Canadian Firms Delisting from U.S. Exchanges," Working Papers 08-11, Bank of Canada.
    13. Baele, Lieven & Farooq, Moazzam & Ongena, Steven, 2011. "Of Religion and Redemption: Evidence from Default on Islamic Loans," CEPR Discussion Papers 8504, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Ioannidou, V. & Ongena, S. & Peydro, J.L., 2009. "Monetary Policy, Risk-Taking, and Pricing: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment," Discussion Paper 2009-31 S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    15. Roger WALDER, 2002. "Interactions Between Market and Credit Risk: Modeling the Joint Dynamics of Default-Free and Defaultable Bond Term Structures," FAME Research Paper Series rp56, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    16. Figlewski, Stephen & Frydman, Halina & Liang, Weijian, 2012. "Modeling the effect of macroeconomic factors on corporate default and credit rating transitions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 87-105.

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