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Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation

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Author Info
Jesus, Saurina
Gabriel, Jimenez
Abstract

This paper finds strong empirical support of a positive, although quite lagged, relationship between rapid credit growth and loan losses. Moreover, it contains empirical evidence of more lenient credit standards during boom periods, both in terms of screening of borrowers and in collateral requirements. We find robust evidence that during upturns, riskier borrowers get bank loans, while collateralized loans decrease. We develop a regulatory prudential tool, based on a countercyclical, or forward-looking, loan loss provision that takes into account the credit risk profile of banks’ loan portfolios along the business cycle. Such a provision might contribute to reinforce the soundness and the stability of banking systems.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/718/
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 718.

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Date of creation: 20 Mar 2006
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Publication status: Published in International Journal of Central Banking Number 2.Volume 2(2006): pp. 65-98
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:718

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Keywords: credit risk; lending cycles; loan loss provisions; bank capital; collateral;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
G0 - Financial Economics - - General

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  1. Bertrand Gruss & Silvia Sgherri, 2009. "The Volatility Costs of Procyclical Lending Standards: An Assessment Using a DSGE Model," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/07, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Masazumi Hattori & Hyun Song Shin, 2007. "The Broad Yen Carry Trade," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-19, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan. [Downloadable!]
  3. Rafael Repullo & Jesús Saurina & Carlos Trucharte, 2009. "Mitigating The Procyclicality Of Basel Ii," Working Papers wp2009_0903, CEMFI. [Downloadable!]
  4. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2009. "Hazardous times for monetary policy: What do twenty-three million bank loans say about the effects of monetary policy on credit risk-taking?," Banco de España Working Papers 0833, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  5. Dell''Ariccia, Giovanni & Igan, Deniz & Laeven, Luc, 2008. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence From The Subprime Mortgage Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6683, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Patrick Van Roy, 2008. "Capital Requirements and Bank Behaviour in the Early 1990: Cross-Country Evidence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(3), pages 29-60, September. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró-Alcalde, José Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2007. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty-Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6514, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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