Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates
AbstractWe provide maximum likelihood estimators of term structures of conditional probabilities of corporate default, incorporating the dynamics of firm-specific and macroeconomic covariates. For U.S. Industrial firms, based on over 390,000 firm-months of data spanning 1979 to 2004, the level and shape of the estimated term structure of conditional future default probabilities depends on a firm?s distance to default (a volatility-adjusted measure of leverage), on the firm?s trailing stock return, on trailing S& P 500 returns, and on U.S. interest rates, among other covariates. Variation in a firm?s distance to default has a substantially greater e ect on the term structure of future default hazard rates than does a comparatively significant change in any of the other covariates. Default intensities are estimated to be lower with higher short-term interest rates. The out-of-sample predictive performance of the model is an improvement over that of other available models.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo in its series CARF F-Series with number CARF-F-047.
Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2005
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
- Darrell Duffie & Leandro Siata & Ke Wang, 2006. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," NBER Working Papers 11962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Darrel Duffie & Leandro Saita & Ke Wang, 2005. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-373, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
- G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-24, January.
- Walter Krämer & André Güttler, 2008.
"On comparing the accuracy of default predictions in the rating industry,"
Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 343-356, March.
- André Güttler & Walter Kraemer, 2008. "On Comparing the Accuracy of Default Predictions in the Rating Industry," CESifo Working Paper Series 2202, CESifo Group Munich.
- Prof. Dr. Walter Krämer & Andre Güttler, . "On comparing the accuracy of default predictions in the rating industry," Working Papers 2, Business and Social Statistics Department, Technische Universität Dortmund, revised Oct 2006.
- David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 1995.
"Why do banks disappear? The determinants of U.S. bank failures and acquisitions,"
1995-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2000. "Why do Banks Disappear? The Determinants of U.S. Bank Failures and Acquisitions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 127-138, February.
- Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974.
"On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Pamela Nickell & William Perraudin & Simone Varotto, 2001.
"Stability of ratings transitions,"
Bank of England working papers
133, Bank of England.
- Gary Whalen, 1991. "A proportional hazards model of bank failure: an examination of its usefulness as an early warning tool," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 21-31.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Cynthia G. McDonald & Linda M. Van De Gucht, 1999. "High-Yield Bond Default And Call Risks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 409-419, August.
- Fischer, Edwin O & Heinkel, Robert & Zechner, Josef, 1989. " Dynamic Capital Structure Choice: Theory and Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 19-40, March.
- Hayne E. Leland., 1994.
"Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure,"
Research Program in Finance Working Papers
RPF-233, University of California at Berkeley.
- Leland, Hayne E, 1994. " Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-52, September.
- Bruce D. Meyer, 1988.
"Unemployment Insurance And Unemployment Spells,"
NBER Working Papers
2546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael R. Roberts & Mark T. Leary, 2004.
"Do Firms Rebalance Their Capital Structures?,"
Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings
52, Econometric Society.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Björn-Jakob Treutler & Scott M. Weiner & April, .
"Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective,"
Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers
03-13, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
- Til Schuermann & Björn-Jakob Treutler & Scott M. Weiner & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 995, CESifo Group Munich.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Schuermann, T. & Treutler, B-J. & Weiner, S.M., 2003. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0330, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Maria Vassalou & Yuhang Xing, 2004. "Default Risk in Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 831-868, 04.
- Hayne E. Leland, 1998.
"Agency Costs, Risk Management, and Capital Structure,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1213-1243, 08.
- Hayne E. Leland., 1998. "Agency Costs, Risk Management, and Capital Structure," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-278, University of California at Berkeley.
- Sanjiv Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2006.
"Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults are Correlated,"
NBER Working Papers
11961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sanjiv R. Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2007. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults Are Correlated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 93-117, 02.
- Philosophov, Leonid V. & Philosophov, Vladimir L., 2002. "Corporate bankruptcy prognosis: An attempt at a combined prediction of the bankruptcy event and time interval of its occurrence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 375-406.
- Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March.
- Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, 09.
- Duffie, Darrell & Lando, David, 2001. "Term Structures of Credit Spreads with Incomplete Accounting Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 633-64, May.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.