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Risk, Uncertainty and Monetary Policy

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  • Bekaert, Geert
  • Lo Duca, Marco
  • Hoerova, Marie

Abstract

We document a strong co-movement between the VIX, the stock market option-based implied volatility, and monetary policy. We decompose the VIX into two components, a proxy for risk aversion and expected stock market volatility ("uncertainty"), and analyze their dynamic interactions with monetary policy in a structural vector autoregressive framework. A lax monetary policy decreases risk aversion after about five months. Monetary authorities react to periods of high uncertainty by easing monetary policy. These results are robust to controlling for business cycle movements. We further investigate channels through which monetary policy may affect risk aversion, e.g., through its effects on broad liquidity measures and credit.

Suggested Citation

  • Bekaert, Geert & Lo Duca, Marco & Hoerova, Marie, 2010. "Risk, Uncertainty and Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 8154, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8154
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle; Monetary policy; Option implied volatility; Risk aversion; Stock market volatility dynamics; Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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