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A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy and the Economy

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Author Info
GlennD. Rudebusch
Tao Wu

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Abstract

This article develops and estimates a macro-finance model that combines a canonical affine no-arbitrage finance specification of the term structure of interest rates with standard macroeconomic aggregate relationships for output and inflation. Based on this combination of yield curve and macroeconomic structure and data, we obtain several interesting results: (1) the latent term structure factors from no-arbitrage finance models appear to have important macroeconomic and monetary policy underpinnings, (2) there is no evidence of a slow partial adjustment of the policy interest rate by the central bank, and (3) both forward-looking and backward-looking elements play roles in macroeconomic dynamics. Copyright © The Author(s). Journal compilation © Royal Economic Society 2008.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2008.02155.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 118 (2008)
Issue (Month): 530 (07)
Pages: 906-926
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:118:y:2008:i:530:p:906-926

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  1. Constantinides, George M, 1992. "A Theory of the Nominal Term Structure of Interest Rates," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 531-52. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Andrew G Haldane & Vicky Read, . "Monetary policy surprises and the yield curve," Bank of England working papers 106, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  5. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2005. "Assessing the Lucas Critique in Monetary Policy Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 245-72, April.
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  6. Francis X. Diebold, & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2003. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Nonstructural Analysis," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/31, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Hans Dewachter & Marco Lyrio, 2002. "Macro Factors and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," International Economics Working Papers Series wpie007, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën, International Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-41, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary-Policy Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 367-390, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2003. "The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Tao Wu, 2001. "Macro factors and the affine term structure of interest rates," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
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  16. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 907-31, November.
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  17. Blinder, Alan S, 1986. "More on the Speed of Adjustment in Inventory Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 355-65, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Bomfim, Antulio N & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2000. "Opportunistic and Deliberate Disinflation under Imperfect Credibility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 707-21, November.
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  19. Söderlind, Paul & Söderström, Ulf & Vredin, Anders, 2003. "Taylor Rules and the Predictability of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 3934, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Antulio N. Bomfim, 2003. "Monetary policy and the yield curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  21. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2003. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 613-652, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "Inflation Targeting: Some Extensions," Seminar Papers 625, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  29. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
  30. Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Yields and the Federal Reserve," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 311-344, April.
  31. Mark Fisher, 2001. "Forces that shape the yield curve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q1, pages 1-15. [Downloadable!]
  32. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C, 1996. "Monetary Policy Shifts and Long-Term Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(4), pages 1183-1209, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  34. Richard Dennis, 2003. "New Keynesian optimal-policy models: an empirical assessment," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2003-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  35. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2002. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  36. Sharon Kozicki, 1999. "How useful are Taylor rules for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-33. [Downloadable!]
  37. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 402-432, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  38. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1998. "The new neoclassical synthesis and the role of monetary policy," Working Paper 98-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
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  39. Dai, Qiang & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2002. "Expectation puzzles, time-varying risk premia, and affine models of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 415-441, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  40. repec:bep:maccon:v:3:y:2003:i:1:p:1073-1073 is not listed on IDEAS
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  43. Tore Ellingsen & Ulf Soderstrom, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Market Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1594-1607, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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