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Term structure modelling with observable state variables

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  • Huse, Cristian

Abstract

This paper proposes and implements a parsimonious three-factor model of the term structure whose dynamics is driven uniquely by observable state variables. This approach allows comparing alternative views on the way state variables – macroeconomic variables, in particular – influence the yield curve dynamics, avoids curse of dimensionality problems, and provides more reliable inference by using both the cross-sectional and the time series dimension of the data. I simulate the small-sample properties of the procedure and conduct in- and out-of-sample studies using a comprehensive set of US data. I show that even a parsimonious model where the level, slope and curvature factors of the term structure are driven by, respectively, inflation, monetary policy and economic activity consistently outperforms the (latent-variable) benchmark model in an out-of-sample study.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
Issue (Month): 12 ()
Pages: 3240-3252

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:12:p:3240-3252

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Keywords: Term structure; Interest rates; Yield curve estimation;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Almeida, Caio & Vicente, José, 2008. "The role of no-arbitrage on forecasting: Lessons from a parametric term structure model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2695-2705, December.

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