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Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models


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  • Qiang Dai
  • Kenneth J. Singleton
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    In this paper, we explore the features of affine term structure models that are empirically important for explaining the joint distribution of yields on short and long-term interest rate swaps. We begin by showing that the family of N-factor affine models can be classified into N+1 non-nested sub-families of models. For each sub-family, we derive a maximal model with the property that every admissible member of this family is equivalent to or a nested special case of our maximal model. Second, using our classification scheme and maximal models, we show that many of the three-factor models in the literature impose potentially strong over-identifying restrictions on the joint distribution of short- and long-term rates. Third, we compute simulated method-of-moments estimates for several members of one of the four branches of three-factor models, and test the over-identifying restrictions implied by these models. We conclude that many of the extant affine models in the literature fail to describe important features of the distribution of long- and short- term rates. The source of the model misspecification is shown to be overly strong restrictions on the correlations among the state variables. Relaxing these restrictions leads to a model that passes several goodness-of-fit tests over our sample period.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business- in its series New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires with number 98-083.

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    Date of creation: 27 Oct 1998
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:fth:nystfi:98-083

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    Postal: U.S.A.; New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics . 44 West 4th Street. New York, New York 10012-1126
    Phone: (212) 998-0100
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    Cited by:
    1. Kalkbrener, Michael & Willing, Jan, 2004. "Risk management of non-maturing liabilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1547-1568, July.
    2. Lioui, Abraham & Poncet, Patrice, 2001. "On optimal portfolio choice under stochastic interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 1841-1865, November.
    3. Penikas, Henry & Simakova, Varvara, 2009. "Interest Rate Risk Management Based on Copula-GARCH Models," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 13(1), pages 3-36.
    4. Penikas, Henry, 2008. "Forecasting for the Bank's Asset-Liability Management," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 12(4), pages 3-26.


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