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Real-time Taylor rules and the federal funds futures market

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Author Info
Charles L. Evans

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Abstract

This article compares movements in the federal funds rate from 1987 through 1997 with predictions from the federal funds market and a Taylor rule using unemployment and core CPI data. Although a Taylor rule using revised data does about as well as the futures market predictions, the best real-time predictions would have produced forecast errors about 50 percent larger than the futures data.

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File URL: http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economicperspectives/1998/ep3Q98_4.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its journal Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): (1998)
Issue (Month): Q III ()
Pages: 44-55
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:1998:i:qiii:p:44-55:n:v.22no.3

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Related research
Keywords: Federal funds market (United States) ; Federal funds market (United States) ; Monetary policy;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Charles L. Evans & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1998. "Can VAR's describe monetary policy?," Working Paper Series WP-98-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Gordon, Robert J, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Joel T. Krueger & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1995. "The Fed funds futures rate as a predictor of Federal Reserve policy," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 95-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Marvin Goodfriend, 1990. "Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy," Working Paper 90-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1995. "Measuring Monetary Policy," Economics Series 10, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  8. John M. Roberts, 1998. "Inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," Working Papers 284, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Karen E. Dynan & Douglas Elmendorf, 2001. "Do provisional estimates of output miss economic turning points?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  4. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2000. "News and noise in G-7 GDP announcements," International Finance Discussion Papers 690, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  5. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2000. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists: does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 00-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  6. Monika Piazzesi & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2006-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Chiara Scotti, 2006. "A bivariate model of Fed and ECB main policy rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 875, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  8. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for marcoeconomists: does the data vintage matter?," Working Papers 99-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Adrienne Kearney & Raymond Lombra, 2003. "Fed funds futures and the news," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 31(4), pages 330-337, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2006. "Market-based measures of monetary policy expectations," Working Paper Series 2006-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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