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The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Dynamic Latent Factor Approach

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  • Francis X. Diebold
  • Glenn D. Rudebusch
  • S. Boragan Aruoba

Abstract

We estimate a model that summarizes the yield curve using latent factors (specifically, level, slope, and curvature) and also includes observable macroeconomic variables (specifically, real activity, inflation, and the monetary policy instrument). Our goal is to provide a characterization of the dynamic interactions between the macroeconomy and the yield curve. We find strong evidence of the effects of macro variables on future movements in the yield curve and evidence for a reverse influence as well. We also relate our results to the expectations hypothesis.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w10616.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10616.

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Date of creation: Jul 2004
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Publication status: published as Diebold, Francis S., Glenn D. Rudebusch and S. Borag'an Aruoba. "The Macroeconomy And The Yield Curve: A Dynamic Latent Factor Approach," Journal of Econometrics, 2006, v131(1-2,Mar-Apr), 309-338.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10616

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  1. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," NBER Working Papers 3153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  3. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
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  20. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June.
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  23. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
  24. Dahlquist, Magnus & Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. " Estimating the Term Structure of Interest Rates for Monetary Policy Analysis," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(2), pages 163-83, June.
  25. Knez, Peter J & Litterman, Robert & Scheinkman, Jose Alexandre, 1994. " Explorations into Factors Explaining Money Market Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1861-82, December.
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  27. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense? A Reply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 943-48, November.
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