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The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Dynamic Latent Factor Approach

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Cited by:

  1. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2010. "New Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 33-62, February.
  2. Matteo Barigozzi & Lorenzo Trapani, 2018. "Determining the dimension of factor structures in non-stationary large datasets," Discussion Papers 18/01, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
  3. Afonso, António & Martins, Manuel M.F., 2012. "Level, slope, curvature of the sovereign yield curve, and fiscal behaviour," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1789-1807.
  4. Moench, Emanuel & Soofi-Siavash, Soroosh, 2022. "What moves treasury yields?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1016-1043.
  5. Zhou, Siwen, 2019. "Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme in a Dynamic Nelson–Siegel Modelling Framework," MPRA Paper 92530, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A.P., 2016. "Bond portfolio optimization using dynamic factor models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 128-158.
  7. Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2019. "Measuring international uncertainty using global vector autoregressions with drifting parameters," Working Papers in Economics 2019-3, University of Salzburg.
  8. Peng Huang & C. James Hueng, 2009. "Interest-rate risk factor and stock returns: a time-varying factor-loadings model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(22), pages 1813-1824.
  9. Eric Hillebrand & Huiyu Huang & Tae-Hwy Lee & Canlin Li, 2018. "Using the Entire Yield Curve in Forecasting Output and Inflation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-27, August.
  10. Matsumura, Marco & Moreira, Ajax & Vicente, José, 2011. "Forecasting the yield curve with linear factor models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 237-243.
  11. Carlo Altavilla & Raffaella Giacomini & Giuseppe Ragusa, 2017. "Anchoring the yield curve using survey expectations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 1055-1068, September.
  12. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, 2012. "Die Zinslast des Bundes in der Schuldenkrise: Wie lukrativ ist der „sichere Hafen“?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 13, pages 81-91, May.
  13. Barakchian , Seyed Mahdi, 2012. "Implications of Cointegration for Forecasting: A Review and an Empirical Analysis," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 7(1), pages 87-118, October.
  14. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman & Michel Wel, 2014. "Smooth Dynamic Factor Analysis With Application To The Us Term Structure Of Interest Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 65-90, January.
  15. Hans Dewachter, 2008. "Imperfect information, macroeconomic dynamics and the yield curve : an encompassing macro-finance model," Working Paper Research 144, National Bank of Belgium.
  16. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Ou, Yangguoyi, 2012. "Analyzing interest rate risk: Stochastic volatility in the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2988-3007.
  17. Somya Tyagi & Sikandar Siddiqui, 2017. "Yield Curve and Momentum Effects in Monthly U.S. Equity Returns: Some Nonparametric Evidence," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 4(2), pages 61-67.
  18. James McNeil, 2020. "Estimation of Impulse response functions with term structure local projections," Working Papers daleconwp2020-05, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
  19. Coroneo, Laura & Nyholm, Ken & Vidova-Koleva, Rositsa, 2011. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson-Siegel model?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 393-407, June.
  20. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Paul L. Mussche, 2022. "Extrapolating Long-Maturity Bond Yields for Financial Risk Measurement," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 8286-8300, November.
  21. Aruoba, S. BoraÄŸan & Diebold, Francis X. & Scotti, Chiara, 2009. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 417-427.
  22. Carlo A. Favero & Linlin Niu & Luca Sala, 2007. "Term Structure Forecasting: No-arbitrage Restrictions vs. Large Information Set," Working Papers 318, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  23. Daan Steenkamp & Henk Janse van Vuuren & Rossouw van Jaarsveld & Roy Havemann, 2022. "The bond market impact of the South African Reserve Bank bond purchase programme," Working Papers 876, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  24. Tomasz Piotr Kostyra & Michał Rubaszek, 2020. "Forecasting the Yield Curve for Poland," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 5(2), pages 103-117, December.
  25. Lengwiler, Yvan & Lenz, Carlos, 2010. "Intelligible factors for the yield curve," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 481-491, August.
  26. Harm Bandholz & Jorg Clostermann & Franz Seitz, 2009. "Explaining the US bond yield conundrum," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(7), pages 539-550.
  27. Jagjit Chadha & Sean Holly, 2006. "Macroeconomic Models and the Yield Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 105, Society for Computational Economics.
  28. Aleš Bulíř & Jan Vlček, 2023. "Monetary Policy is Not Always Systematic and Data-Driven: Evidence from the Yield Curve," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 93-112, February.
  29. Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2021. "A new approach to measuring economic policy shocks, with an application to conventional and unconventional monetary policy," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(4), pages 1085-1138, November.
  30. Dick, Christian D. & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2013. "Macro-expectations, aggregate uncertainty, and expected term premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 58-80.
  31. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2008. "Global yield curve dynamics and interactions: A dynamic Nelson-Siegel approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 351-363, October.
  32. Chadha, Jagjit S. & Waters, Alex, 2014. "Applying a macro-finance yield curve to UK quantitative Easing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 68-86.
  33. Josué Cortés Espada & Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos-Francia & Alberto Torres, 2009. "An empirical analysis of the mexican term structure of interest rates," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 2300-2313.
  34. Andrew Ang & Sen Dong & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "No-arbitrage Taylor rules," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  35. Jan J. J. Groen & Richard Paap & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2013. "Real-Time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 29-44, January.
  36. Leo Krippner, 2014. "Measuring the stance of monetary policy in conventional and unconventional environments," CAMA Working Papers 2014-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  37. Carlo A. Favero & Stefano W. Giglio, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and the Term Structure: Evidence from the Case of Italy in the EMS and the EMU Periods," Working Papers 312, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  38. Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Costa, Sonia, 2013. "Does the euro area forward rate provide accurate forecasts of the short rate?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 131-141.
  39. Michael D. Bauer & James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Robust Bond Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 399-448.
  40. Krishnan, C.N.V. & Ritchken, Peter H. & Thomson, James B., 2010. "Predicting credit spreads," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 529-563, October.
  41. Michiel de Pooter & Francesco Ravazzolo & Dick van Dijk, 2010. "Term structure forecasting using macro factors and forecast combination," Working Paper 2010/01, Norges Bank.
  42. Tommaso Tornese, 2023. "A Euro Area Term Structure Model with Time Varying Exposures," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23199, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
  43. Dauwe, Alexander & Moura, Marcelo L., 2011. "Forecasting the term structure of the Euro Market using Principal Component Analysis," Insper Working Papers wpe_233, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  44. Wali Ullah & Yoshihiko Tsukuda & Yasumasa Matsuda, 2012. "Term Structure Forecasting of Government Bond Yields with Latent and Macroeconomic Factors: Does Macroeconomic Factors Imply Better Out-of-Sample Forecasts?," TERG Discussion Papers 287, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
  45. Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Maria Matthaiou & Efthymia Chrysanthidou, 2015. "Yield Curve and Recession Forecasting in a Machine Learning Framework," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 635-645, April.
  46. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "Interest Rates under Falling Stars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(5), pages 1316-1354, May.
  47. Pericoli, Marcello & Taboga, Marco, 2012. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 42-65.
  48. Bautista, Rafaél & Riáscos, Álvaro & Suárez, Nicolás, 2007. "La aplicación de un modelo de factores a las curvas de rendimiento del mercado de deuda pública colombiano," Galeras. Working Papers Series 014, Universidad de Los Andes. Facultad de Administración. School of Management.
  49. Andrea Carriero, 2011. "Forecasting The Yield Curve Using Priors From No‐Arbitrage Affine Term Structure Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(2), pages 425-459, May.
  50. Alonso Gomez & John M Maheu & Alex Maynard, 2008. "Improving Forecasts of Inflation using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers tecipa-319, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  51. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L. & Valente, Giorgio, 2007. "The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(1), pages 81-100, March.
  52. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2016. "The macroeconomic determinants of the US term structure during the Great Moderation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 216-225.
  53. Jiménez, Gabriel & Mencía, Javier, 2009. "Modelling the distribution of credit losses with observable and latent factors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 235-253, March.
  54. Anders Merrild Posselt, 2022. "Dynamics in the VIX complex," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(9), pages 1665-1687, September.
  55. Davidson Heath, 2019. "Macroeconomic Factors in Oil Futures Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(9), pages 4407-4421, September.
  56. Soloschenko, Max & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Capturing the Interaction of Trend, Cycle, Expectations and Risk Premia in the US Term Structure," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 475, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
  57. Mr. Rodrigo Cabral & Mr. Richard Munclinger & Mr. Luiz Alves & Mr. Marco Rodriguez Waldo, 2011. "On Brazil’s Term Structure: Stylized Facts and Analysis of Macroeconomic Interactions," IMF Working Papers 2011/113, International Monetary Fund.
  58. Benoit Perron & Hyungsik Roger Moon, 2007. "An empirical analysis of nonstationarity in a panel of interest rates with factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 383-400.
  59. Tobias S. Blattner & Michael A. S. Joyce, 2020. "The Euro Area Bond Free Float and the Implications for QE," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(6), pages 1361-1395, September.
  60. Yang-Ho Park, 2019. "Information in Yield Spread Trades," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-025, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  61. Mr. Calixte Ahokpossi & Pilar Garcia Martinez & Laurent Kemoe, 2016. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies and the Dynamics of the Yield Curve in Morocco," IMF Working Papers 2016/103, International Monetary Fund.
  62. Constantino Hevia & Ivan Petrella & Martin Sola, 2022. "Bond Risk Premia, Priced Regime Shifts, and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," Working Papers 200, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
  63. Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "An arbitrage-free generalized Nelson--Siegel term structure model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(3), pages 33-64, November.
  64. Karimalis, Emmanouil & Kosmidis, Ioannis & Peters, Gareth, 2017. "Multi yield curve stress-testing framework incorporating temporal and cross tenor structural dependencies," Bank of England working papers 655, Bank of England.
  65. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "The Response of Interest Rates to US and UK Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 385-414, November.
  66. Tronzano, Marco, 2018. "Does the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure Hold in Korea after the Asian Financial Crisis? Some Empirical Evidence (1999-2017)," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 71(2), pages 191-226.
  67. P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-71, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  68. Kagraoka, Yusho & Moussa, Zakaria, 2013. "Quantitative easing, credibility and the time-varying dynamics of the term structure of interest rate in Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 181-201.
  69. Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2011. "Revisiting the expectations hypothesis: The Japanese term structure and regime shifts," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 237-249, May.
  70. Niels Haldrup & Carsten P. T. Rosenskjold, 2019. "A Parametric Factor Model of the Term Structure of Mortality," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, March.
  71. Nathan Bedock & Dalibor Stevanović, 2017. "An empirical study of credit shock transmission in a small open economy," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(2), pages 541-570, May.
  72. Dana Kiseľáková & Paulina Filip & Erika Onuferová & Tomáš Valentiny, 2020. "The Impact of Monetary Policies on the Sustainable Economic and Financial Development in the Euro Area Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-21, November.
  73. Lelo de Larrea Alejandra, 2020. "Forecast Comparison of the Term Structure of Interest Rates of Mexico for Different Specifications of the Affine Model," Working Papers 2020-01, Banco de México.
  74. Edda Claus & Mardi Dungey, 2012. "U.S. Monetary Policy Surprises: Identification with Shifts and Rotations in the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1443-1453, October.
  75. Chung, Tsz-Kin & Hui, Cho-Hoi & Li, Ka-Fai, 2017. "Term-structure modelling at the zero lower bound: Implications for estimating the forward term premium," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 100-106.
  76. Takamizawa, Hideyuki, 2022. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson–Siegel model under stochastic volatility?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 205-223.
  77. Carlo A. Favero & Linlin Niu & Luca Sala, 2012. "Term Structure Forecasting: No‐Arbitrage Restrictions versus Large Information Set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 124-156, March.
  78. van der Wel, M., 2020. "Connecting Silos : On linking macroeconomics and finance, and the role of econometrics therein," ERIM Inaugural Address Series Research in Management 124748, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam..
  79. Mathias Drehmann & Steffen Sorensen & Marco Stringa, 2007. "Integrating credit and interest rate risk: A theoretical framework and an application to banks' balance sheets," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 151, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  80. Dufrénot, Gilles & Rhouzlane, Meryem & Vaccaro-Grange, Etienne, 2022. "Potential growth and natural yield curve in Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
  81. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2017. "When does the yield curve contain predictive power? Evidence from a data-rich environment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1044-1064.
  82. Ken Nyholm & Riccardo Rebonato, 2008. "Long-horizon yield curve projections: comparison of semi-parametric and parametric approaches," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(20), pages 1597-1611.
  83. Paolo Zagaglia, 2011. "Forecasting Long-Term Interest Rates with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area: The Role of the Feedback," Working Paper series 19_11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  84. Martin Kliem & Alexander Meyer‐Gohde, 2022. "(Un)expected monetary policy shocks and term premia," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 477-499, April.
  85. Leo Krippner, 2013. "A tractable framework for zero-lower-bound Gaussian term structure models," CAMA Working Papers 2013-49, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  86. Meredith J. Beechey, 2008. "Lowering the anchor: how the Bank of England's inflation-targeting policies have shaped inflation expectations and perceptions of inflation risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  87. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2008. "Canonical Term‐Structure Models with Observable Factors and the Dynamics of Bond Risk Premia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1471-1488, October.
  88. Oliver Blaskowitz & Helmut Herwartz, 2009. "Adaptive forecasting of the EURIBOR swap term structure," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 575-594.
  89. Leo Krippner, 2009. "A theoretical foundation for the Nelson and Siegel class of yield curve models," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  90. Ireland, Peter N., 2015. "Monetary policy, bond risk premia, and the economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 124-140.
  91. Blattner, Tobias Sebastian & Joyce, Michael A. S., 2016. "Net debt supply shocks in the euro area and the implications for QE," Working Paper Series 1957, European Central Bank.
  92. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2007. "The Canadian macroeconomy and the yield curve: an equilibrium‐based approach," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 561-583, May.
  93. Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2018. "The impact of oil price shocks on the term structure of interest rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 601-620.
  94. Andr? Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2612-2632, October.
  95. Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong, 2018. "Big data analytics in economics: What have we learned so far, and where should we go from here?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 695-746, August.
  96. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "Time-varying yield curve dynamics and monetary policy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 895-913.
  97. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
  98. Gzyl, Henryk & Mayoral, Silvia, 2016. "Determination of zero-coupon and spot rates from treasury data by maximum entropy methods," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 456(C), pages 38-50.
  99. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro‐Finance Models Of Interest Rates And The Economy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 25-52, September.
  100. Hlouskova, Jaroslava & Sögner, Leopold, 2020. "GMM estimation of affine term structure models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 2-15.
  101. Elizondo Rocío, 2023. "The Three Intelligible Factors of the Yield Curve in Mexico," Working Papers 2023-13, Banco de México.
  102. Yifeng Yan & Ju'e Guo, 2015. "The Sovereign Yield Curve and the Macroeconomy in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 415-441, August.
  103. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2014. "The term structure of interest rates as predictor of stock returns: Evidence for the IBEX 35 during a bear market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 21-33.
  104. Moreno, Manuel & Novales, Alfonso & Platania, Federico, 2018. "A term structure model under cyclical fluctuations in interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 140-150.
  105. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2009. "Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 642-675, October.
  106. Andreas Reschreiter, 2010. "Inflation And The Mean‐Reverting Level Of The Short Rate," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(1), pages 76-91, January.
  107. NAKAJIMA, Jouchi & SUDO, Nao & HOGEN, Yoshihiko & TAKIZUKA, Yasutaka, 2023. "On the estimation of the natural yield curve," Discussion Paper Series 753, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  108. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Yang, Fuyu, 2012. "Bayesian inference in a Stochastic Volatility Nelson–Siegel model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3774-3792.
  109. Adam Traczyk, 2013. "Financial integration and the term structure of interest rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1267-1305, December.
  110. Castro-Iragorri, C & Ramírez, J, 2021. "Forecasting Dynamic Term Structure Models with Autoencoders," Documentos de Trabajo 19431, Universidad del Rosario.
  111. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Masten, Igor, 2014. "Forecasting with factor-augmented error correction models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 589-612.
  112. Garriga, Carlos & Kydland, Finn E. & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
  113. Ching-Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter, 2016. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Non-Gaussian Shocks," CReMFi Discussion Papers 5, CReMFi, School of Economics and Finance, QMUL.
  114. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Effects on the Riskless Yield Curve with Regime Switching Nelson†Siegel Models," Working Papers 639, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  115. Piero C. Kauffmann & Hellinton H. Takada & Ana T. Terada & Julio M. Stern, 2022. "Learning Forecast-Efficient Yield Curve Factor Decompositions with Neural Networks," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-15, March.
  116. Emanuel Kopp & Peter D. Williams, 2018. "A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium," IMF Working Papers 2018/140, International Monetary Fund.
  117. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
  118. Fausto Vieira & Fernando Chague, Marcelo Fernandes, 2016. "A dynamic Nelson-Siegel model with forward-looking indicators for the yield curve in the US," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2016_31, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
  119. Andreasen, Martin M. & Christensen, Bent Jesper, 2015. "The SR approach: A new estimation procedure for non-linear and non-Gaussian dynamic term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(2), pages 420-451.
  120. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Resolving the Spanning Puzzle in Macro-Finance Term Structure Models," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(2), pages 511-553.
  121. Siem Jan Koopman & Max I.P. Mallee & Michel van der Wel, 2007. "Analyzing the Term Structure of Interest Rates using the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model with Time-Varying Parameters," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-095/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  122. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2012. "Risk aversion, intertemporal substitution, and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 1013-1036, September.
  123. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The Bond Yield "Conundrum" from a Macro-Finance Perspective," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(S1), pages 83-109, December.
  124. Moench, Emanuel, 2008. "Forecasting the yield curve in a data-rich environment: A no-arbitrage factor-augmented VAR approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 26-43, September.
  125. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2011. "The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 4-20, September.
  126. Clostermann, Jörg & Seitz, Franz, 2005. "Are bond markets really overpriced: The case of the US," Arbeitsberichte – Working Papers 11, Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt (THI).
  127. Andrea Ajello & Luca Benzoni & Olena Chyruk & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2020. "Core and ‘Crust’: Consumer Prices and the Term Structure of Interest Rates [Decomposing real and nominal yield curves]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(8), pages 3719-3765.
  128. Shang, Yuhuang & Zheng, Tingguo, 2018. "Fitting and forecasting yield curves with a mixed-frequency affine model: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 145-154.
  129. Francesco Audrino & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2008. "Smooth Regimes, Macroeconomic Variables, and Bagging for the Short-Term Interest Rate Process," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2008 2008-16, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
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