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Predicting the term structure of interest rates incorporating parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and macroeconomic information

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Author Info
De Pooter, Michiel
Ravazzolo, Francesco
van Dijk, Dick

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Abstract

We forecast the term structure of U.S. Treasury zero-coupon bond yields by analyzing a range of models that have been used in the literature. We assess the relevance of parameter uncertainty by examining the added value of using Bayesian inference compared to frequentist estimation techniques, and model uncertainty by combining forecasts from individual models. Following current literature we also investigate the benefits of incorporating macroeconomic information in yield curve models. Our results show that adding macroeconomic factors is very beneficial for improving the out-of-sample forecasting performance of individual models. Despite this, the predictive accuracy of models varies over time considerably, irrespective of using the Bayesian or frequentist approach. We show that mitigating model uncertainty by combining forecasts leads to substantial gains in forecasting performance, especially when applying Bayesian model averaging.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 2512.

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Date of creation: 06 Nov 2006
Date of revision: 03 Mar 2007
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2512

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Related research
Keywords: Term structure of interest rates Nelson-Siegel model Affine term structure model forecast combination Bayesian analysis

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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  3. Leo Krippner, 2005. "An Intertemporally-Consistent and Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/01, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Hordahl, Peter & Tristani, Oreste & Vestin, David, 2006. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term-structure dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 405-444. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Clive Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2008. "The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modelling and Forecasting the Yield Curve," OFRC Working Papers Series 2008fe24, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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