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Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve

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Charles L. Evans
David Marshall

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Abstract

We study the effect of different types of macroeconomic impulses on the nominal yield curve. We employ two distinct approaches to identifying economic shocks in VARs. Our first approach uses a structural VAR due to Galí (1992). Our second strategy identifies fundamental impulses from alternative empirical measures of economic shocks proposed in the literature. We find that most of the long-run variability of interest rates of all maturities is driven by macroeconomic impulses. Shocks to preferences for current consumption consistently induce large, persistent, and statistically significant shifts in the level of the yield curve. In contrast, technology shocks induce weaker and less robust patterns of interest rate responses, since they move real rates and expected inflation in opposite directions. Monetary policy shocks are the only macroeconomic shocks with a consistent and significant impact on the slope of the yield curve. We find no evidence that fiscal policy shocks induce any significant interest rate responses.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series with number WP-01-16.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-01-16

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Keywords: Macroeconomics ; Monetary policy ; Fiscal policy;

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jesús Vázquez, 2004. "Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates During U.S. Post-War: A case for the Lucas proof equilibrium?," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2004/11, Centro de Estudios Andaluces. [Downloadable!]
  2. Taboga, Marco & Pericoli, Marcello, 2008. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," MPRA Paper 9523, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Michael Lamla & Sarah M. Rupprecht, 2006. "The Impact of ECB Communication on Financial Market Expectations," KOF Working papers 06-135, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  4. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, 2007. "Mr. Wicksell and the global economy: What drives real interest rates?," Working Papers 2007-06, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Taeyoung Doh, 2009. "Yield curve in an estimated nonlinear macro model," Research Working Paper RWP 09-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  6. Suzan Hol, 2006. "Determinants of long-term interest rates in the Scandinavian countries," Discussion Papers 469, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Matteo Modena, 2008. "The Term Structure and the Expectations Hypothesis: a Threshold Model," Working Papers 2008_36, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Matteo Modena, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Curvature Factor of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 2008_35, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Cameron A. Shelton, 2007. "The Information Content of Elections and Varieties of the Partisan Political Business Cycle," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2007-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. R. Anton Braun & Etsuro Shioji, 2003. "Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Japan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-252, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
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    ," Working Papers 07-21, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Paola Donati & Francesco Donati, 2008. "Modelling and forecasting the yield curve under model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 917, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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