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Seasonal Solow residuals and Christmas: a case for labor hoarding and increasing returns

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Author Info
R. Anton Braun
Charles L. Evans

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Abstract

In aggregate unadjusted data, measured Solow residuals exhibit large seasonal variations. Total Factor Productivity grows rapidly in the fourth quarter at an annual rate of 16 percent and regresses sharply in the first quarter at an annual rate of ?24 percent. This paper considers two potential explanations for the measured seasonal variation in the Solow residual: labor hoarding and increasing returns to scale. Using a specification that allows for no exogenous seasonal variation in technology and a single seasonal demand shift in the fourth quarter, we ask the following question: How much of the total seasonal variation in the measured Solow residual can be explained by Christmas? The answer to this question is surprising. With increasing returns and time varying labor effort, Christmas is sufficient to explain the seasonal variation in the Solow residual, consumption, average productivity, and output in all four quarters. Our analysis of seasonally unadjusted data uncovers important roles for labor hoarding and increasing returns which are difficult to identify in adjusted data.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Working Papers with number 575.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmwp:575

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Keywords: Seasonal variations (Economics);

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Richard M. Todd, 2000. "The Conventional Treatment of Seasonality in Business Cycle Analysis: Does it Create Distortions?," NBER Technical Working Papers 0266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Russell Cooper & Alok Johri, 1996. "Dynamic Complementarities: A Quantitative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5691, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Wouter Den Haan, 1995. "Small sample properties of GMM for business cycle analysis," Staff Report 199, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Anil K Kashyap, 1996. "International Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Michael D. Bordo & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Labor Productivity During the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 4415, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Charles L. Evans & David Marshall, 2001. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Working Paper Series WP-01-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. R. Anton Braun & Charles L. Evans, 1994. "Seasonality and equilibrium business cycle theories," Staff Report 168, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Alok Johri, 2007. "Delivering Endogenous Inertia in Prices and Output," Department of Economics Working Papers 2007-04, McMaster University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 1999. "Are Apparent Productive Spillovers a Figment of Specification Error?," NBER Working Papers 5073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Alok Johri & Amartya Lahiri, 2008. "Persistent Real Exchange Rates," Department of Economics Working Papers 2008-04, McMaster University. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2007. "Total Factor Productivity and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Conditional Volatility," Working papers 2007-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  12. John Haltiwanger & Russell Cooper, 1992. "The Aggregate Implications Of Machine Replacement: Theory And Evidence," Working Papers 92-12, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Charles L. Evans & David A. Marshall, 2005. "Fundamental Economic Shocks and The Macroeconomy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 351, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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