Rational expectations modeling with seasonally adjusted data
AbstractIn a world where time series show clear seasonal fluctuations, rational agents will take account of those fluctuations in planning their own behavior. Using seasonally adjusted data to model behavior of such agents throws away information and introduces possibly severe bias. Nonetheless it may be true fairly often that rational expectations modeling with seasonally adjusted data, treating the adjusted data as if it were actual data, gives approximately correct results; and naive extensions of standard modeling techniques to seasonally unadjusted data may give worse results than naive use of adjusted data. This paper justifies these claims with examples and detailed arguments.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.
Volume (Year): 55 (1993)
Issue (Month): 1-2 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom
Other versions of this item:
- Christopher A. Sims, 1990. "Rational expectations modeling with seasonally adjusted data," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 35, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Norrbin, Stefan C. & Reffett, Kevin L., 1996. "A substitution test of long-run money demand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 253-270.
- Rae, David, 1996. "NBNZ-DEMONZ: A dynamic equilibrium model of New Zealand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 91-165, January.
- Christiano, Lawrence J. & Todd, Richard M., 2002.
"The conventional treatment of seasonality in business cycle analysis: does it create distortions?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 335-364, March.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Richard M. Todd, 2000. "The Conventional Treatment of Seasonality in Business Cycle Analysis: Does it Create Distortions?," NBER Technical Working Papers 0266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eric Ghysels, 1992.
"Christmas, Spring and the Dawning of Economic Recovery,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1027, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Ghysels, E., 1992. "Charistmas, Spring and the Dawning of Economic Recovery," Cahiers de recherche 9215, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Ghysels, E., 1992. "Charistmas, Spring and the Dawning of Economic Recovery," Cahiers de recherche 9215, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Berkowitz, Jeremy, 2001. "Generalized spectral estimation of the consumption-based asset pricing model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 269-288, September.
- Ghysels, Eric & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2006.
"Predicting volatility: getting the most out of return data sampled at different frequencies,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 59-95.
- Eric Ghysels & Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2004. "Predicting Volatility: Getting the Most out of Return Data Sampled at Different Frequencies," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-19, CIRANO.
- Eric Ghysels & Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2004. "Predicting Volatility: Getting the Most out of Return Data Sampled at Different Frequencies," NBER Working Papers 10914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Raimundo Soto, 2000.
"Ajuste Estacional e Integración en Variables Macroeconómicas,"
Working Papers Central Bank of Chile
73, Central Bank of Chile.
- Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Ajuste Estacional e Integración en Variables Macroeconómicas," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 39(116), pages 135-155.
- Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2001. "Acknowledging Misspecification in Macroeconomic Theory," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(3), pages 519-535, July.
- T. Hutchison & I. Pellengahr & K. Podczeck & R. Noll & I. Vogelsang & B. Mitchell & S. Martin & J. Mairesse, 1994.
Journal of Economics,
Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 325-349, October.
- Ingo Vogelsang, 2001. "Book Review," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 157(3), pages 483-485, September.
- A. Shorrocks & T. Hens & H. Gottinger & S. Reichelstein & B. Kuon & M. Frenkel & R. Braun & R. Noll & Y. Xu, 1997. "Book Reviews," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 66(3), pages 308-328, October.
- E. Streissler & C. Puppe & M. Pasche & C. Schmidt & I. Vogelsang & F. Schneider & M. Neumann & G. Debelle & P. Welfens, 1999. "Book reviews," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 209-233, June.
- Ghysels, Éric, 1994. "L’analyse économétrique et la saisonnalité," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 70(1), pages 43-62, mars.
- Braun, R Anton & Evans, Charles L, 1998.
"Seasonal Solow Residuals and Christmas: A Case for Labor Hoarding and Increasing Returns,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 306-30, August.
- R. Anton Braun & Charles L. Evans, 1991. "Seasonal Solow residuals and Christmas: a case for labor hoarding and increasing returns," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- R. Anton Braun & Charles L. Evans, 1996. "Seasonal Solow residuals and Christmas: a case for labor hoarding and increasing returns," Working Papers 575, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Olalla, Myriam García & Gómez, Alejandro Ruiz, 2011. "Robust control and central banking behaviour," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1265-1278, May.
- Norrbin, S.C. & Reffett, K.L., 1993.
"Trade Credit in a Monetary Economy,"
1993_06_02, Department of Economics, Florida State University.
- Otrok, Christopher & Ravikumar, B. & Whiteman, Charles H., 2007. "A generalized volatility bound for dynamic economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2269-2290, November.
- Zhongjun Qu & Denis Tkachenko, 2011. "Frequency Domain Analysis of Medium Scale DSGE Models with Application to Smets and Wouters (2007)," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2011-060, Boston University - Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.