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A Joint Model for the Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Macroeconomy

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Author Info
Hans Dewachter () (K.U.Leuven and Erasmus University of Rotterdam)
Marco Lyrio () (K.U.Leuven, C.E.S., International Economics)
Konstantijn Maes () (K.U.Leuven, C.E.S., International Economics)

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Abstract

In this paper, we present a stylized continuous time model integrating the macroeconomy and the bond markets. We use this framework to estimate (real) interest rate policy rules using information contained in both macroeconomic variables (i.e. output and inflation) and in the term structure of interest rates. We extend the standard Kalman filter procedure in order to estimate this model efficiently. Application to the U.S. economy shows that this model is able to estimate the macroeconomic dynamics accurately and that the standard feedback rule only in observable factors is not valid within this framework. Moreover, we find that observable macroeconomic variables do not explain much of the term structure. However, (filtered) stochastic central tendencies of these macroeconomic variables do. Finally, both observable and non-observable factors determine the risk premia and hence the excess holding returns of the bonds.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën, International Economics in its series International Economics Working Papers Series with number wpie002.

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Length: 60 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2001
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Handle: RePEc:kul:kulwps:wpie002

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Related research
Keywords: essentially affine term structure model; feedback interest rate rule; forecasting;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Tao Wu & Glenn Rudebusch, 2004. "A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy, and the Economy," 2004 Meeting Papers 104, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Hans Dewachter & Marco Lyrio, 2003. "Macro Factors and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," International Economics Working Papers Series ces0304, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën, International Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Hans Dewachter & Marco Lyrio & Konstantijn Maes, 2004. "The Effect of Monetary Unification on German Bond Markets," European Financial Management, Blackwell Publishing Ltd, vol. 10(3), pages 487-509. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Buraschi, Andrea & Jiltsov, Alexei, 2005. "Inflation risk premia and the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 429-490, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Peter Hordahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2003. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
  8. Peter Hordahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2004. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 48, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Tao Wu, 2001. "Macro factors and the affine term structure of interest rates," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2002. "Dynamic specifications in optimizing trend-deviation macro models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1585-1611, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Hans Dewachter & Marco Lyrio & Konstantijn Maes, 2001. "Estimation of a Joint Model for the Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Macroeconomy," International Economics Working Papers Series ces0118, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën, International Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 613-652, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey Wooldridge, 1992. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying covariances," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 143-172. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
  17. Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Yields and the Federal Reserve," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 311-344, April.
  18. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "The term structure of announcement effects," Staff Reports 76, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Duan, Jin-Chuan & Simonato, Jean-Guy, 1999. " Estimating and Testing Exponential-Affine Term Structure Models by Kalman Filter," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 111-35, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Hans Dewachter & Marco Lyrio & Konstantijn Maes, 2001. "A Joint Model for the Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Macroeconomy," International Economics Working Papers Series wpie002, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën, International Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  21. Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-92, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alonso Gomez & John M Maheu & Alex Maynard, 2008. "Improving Forecasts of Inflation using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers tecipa-319, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sharon Kozicki & Peter Tinsley, 2005. "Term structure transmission of monetary policy," Research Working Paper RWP 05-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Francesco Audrino & Kameliya Filipova, 2009. "Yield Curve Predictability, Regimes, and Macroeconomic Information: A Data-Driven Approach," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2009 2009-10, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
  4. Matteo Modena, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Curvature Factor of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 2008_35, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Peter Vlaar, 2007. "Term Structure Modeling for Pension Funds:What to do in Practice?," DNB Working Papers 123, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jardet, C. & Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2009. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) Term Structure Models, Term Premia and GDP Growth," Documents de Travail 234, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  7. Marco Lyrio & Hans Dewachter & Konstantijn Maes, 2006. "A joint model for the term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 439-462. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Ricardo Gimeno & José Manuel Marqués, 2009. "Extraction of financial market expectations about inflation and interest rates from a liquid market," Banco de España Working Papers 0906, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  9. Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo, 2009. "An Extended Macro-Finance Model with Financial Factors," MPRA Paper 17634, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Peter Spreij & Enno Veerman & Peter Vlaar, 2008. "Multivariate Feller conditions in term structure models: Why do(n't) we care?," DNB Working Papers 173, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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