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Monetary policy surprises and the yield curve

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Andrew G Haldane
Vicky Read
Abstract

This paper presents a theoretical framework that allows a decomposition of 'surprises' along the yield curve at the time of monetary policy changes. These surprises can be decomposed into news about policy variables and news about policy preferences, depending on where along the yield curve these surprises occur. On this interpretation, news about policy variables shows up in movements at the short end of the yield curve and is a signal of imperfect monetary policy transparency. News about policy preferences shows up in movements at the long end of the yield curve and is a signal of imperfect monetary policy credibility. The paper considers empirical case studies of the response of the yield curve in the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany and Italy at the time of monetary policy changes. It finds that the introduction of inflation targeting in the United Kingdom has had a significantly dampening effect on yield curve surprises at the short end. This is consistent with - and illustrates one of the tangible benefits of - the increased transparency of the United Kingdom's monetary policy framework under inflation targeting.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 106.

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Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:106

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Stein, Jeremy C, 1989. "Cheap Talk and the Fed: A Theory of Imprecise Policy Announcements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 32-42, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bennett T. McCallum, 1994. "Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 4938, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Garfinkel, Michelle R. & Oh, Seonghwan, 1995. "When and how much to talk credibility and flexibility in monetary policy with private information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 341-357, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Cornell, Bradford, 1983. "Money Supply Announcements and Interest Rates: Another View," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-23, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Canzoneri, Matthew B, 1985. "Monetary Policy Games and the Role of Private Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 1056-70, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1986. "Monetary mystique: Secrecy and central banking," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 63-92, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-67, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Andrew G. Haldane & Nicoletta Batini, 1998. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  13. Mervyn King, 1994. "Monetary policy in the UK," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 109-28, August. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Favero, Carlo A & Iacone, Fabrizio & Pifferi, Marco, 1996. "Monetary Policy, Forward Rates and Long Rates: Does Germany Differ from the United States?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1456, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Jonathan Coppel & Ellis Connolly, 2003. "What Do Financial Market Data Tell Us About Monetary Policy Transparency?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-05, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  2. Toni Gravelle & Richhild Moessner, 2001. "Reactions of Canadian Interest Rates to Macroeconomic Announcements: Implications for Monetary Policy Transparency," Working Papers 01-5, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  3. Glenn Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2004. "A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Amir Kia & Hilde Patron, 2004. "Market-Based Monetary Policy Transparency Index, Risk and Volatility - The Case of the United States," Carleton Economic Papers 04-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. David Navratil & Viktor Kotlan, 2005. "The CNB's Policy Decisions - Are They Priced in by the Markets?," Research and Policy Notes 2005/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Ana Lasaosa, . "Learning the rules of the new game? Comparing the reactions in financial markets to announcements before and after the Bank of England's operational independence," Bank of England working papers 255, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  7. Georgios Chortareas & David Stasavage & Gabriel Sterne, . "Does it pay to be transparent? International evidence from central bank forecasts," Bank of England working papers 143, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Ellis Connolly & Marion Kohler, 2004. "News and Interest Rate Expectations: A Study of Six Central Banks," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-10, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Peter Lildholdt & Anne Vila Wetherilt, . "Anticipation of monetary policy in UK financial markets," Bank of England working papers 241, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jorge Sicilia & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Paper Series 192, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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