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Monetary policy and the yield curve

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  • Antulio N. Bomfim
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    Abstract

    This paper examines the empirical properties of a two-factor affine model of the term structure of interest rates, estimated with LIBOR and interest rate swap data from 1989 through 2001. Despite its relative simplicity, the model fits the interest rate data remarkably well, both across time and maturity, and identifies changes in the current and expected stance of monetary policy as primary movers of the yield curve.

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    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2003/200315/200315abs.html
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    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2003/200315/200315pap.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2003-15.

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    Date of creation: 2003
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2003-15

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    Keywords: Interest rates ; Swaps (Finance);

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    References

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    1. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Sanjiv Ranjan Das & Silverio Foresi, 1998. "The Central Tendency: A Second Factor In Bond Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 62-72, February.
    2. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
    3. Charles L. Evans & David A. Marshall, 1997. "Monetary policy and the term structure of nominal interest rates: evidence and theory," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    4. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: evidence from the Fed funds futures markets," Staff Reports 99, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Babbs, Simon H. & Nowman, K. Ben, 1999. "Kalman Filtering of Generalized Vasicek Term Structure Models," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 115-130, March.
    6. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    7. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
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    Cited by:
    1. Ielpo, Florian & Guégan, Dominique, 2006. "Further evidence on the impact of economic news on interest rates," MPRA Paper 3425, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2007.
    2. GlennD. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2008. "A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy and the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 906-926, 07.
    3. J. Benson Durham, 2003. "Estimates of the term premium on near-dated federal funds futures contracts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-19, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Michael Lamla & Sarah M. Rupprecht, 2006. "The Impact of ECB Communication on Financial Market Expectations," KOF Working papers 06-135, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    5. Andersson, Malin & Dillén, Hans & Sellin, Peter, 2001. "Monetary Policy Signaling and Movements in the Swedish Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Paper Series 132, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Jan 2004.
    6. Derviz, Alexis, 2004. "Exchange rate risks and asset prices in a small open economy," Working Paper Series 0314, European Central Bank.
    7. Carlo Rosa & Giovanni Verga, 2006. "The Impact of Central Bank Announcements on Asset Prices in Real Time: Testing the Efficiency of the Euribor Futures Market," CEP Discussion Papers dp0764, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    8. Carlo Rosa & Giovanni Verga, 2008. "The Impact of Central Bank Announcements on Asset Prices in Real Time," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 175-217, June.

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