This paper models the time-varying mean of the UK real and nominal short-term interest rate. Both rates mean revert to a time-varying central tendency in continuous-time interest rate models. Before and during British membership in the ERM, the mean of the real and nominal short rate have a strong negative correlation. Afterwards, when the UK implemented an inflation targeting policy, the mean of the real and nominal short rate are no longer negatively correlated, but instead have a strong positive correlation. The paper also reports empirical evidence of a relationship between the mean of the real and nominal short rate and inflation in the period before the departure from the ERM.
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Paper provided by Institute for Advanced Studies in its series Economics Series with number
193.
Find related papers by JEL classification: E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
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