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The Impact of Central Bank Announcements on Asset Prices in Real Time

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  • Carlo Rosa

    (Institute for the World Economy and Centre for Economic Performance)

  • Giovanni Verga

    (Department of Economics, University of Parma)

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of European Central Bank (ECB) communication on the price discovery process in the Euribor futures market using a new tick-by-tick data set. First, we show that two pieces of news systematically hit financial markets on Governing Council meeting days: the ECB policy rate decision and the explanation of its monetary policy stance. Second, we find that the unexpected component of ECB explanations has a significant and sizable impact on futures prices. Third, we investigate how communication interacts with learning by the public about the credibility of the central bank: financial market participants needed around three years, from 1999 through 2001, to learn how to interpret and believe ECB announcements. Finally, our results suggest that the Euribor futures market is efficient.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 4 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 175-217

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Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2008:q:2:a:5

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  1. Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2007. "The Importance of Being Vigilant: Has ECB Communication Influenced Euro Area Inflation Expectations?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2134, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Refet Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2004. "Do actions speak louder than words? the response of asset prices to monetary policy actions and statements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2005. "Communication and decision-making by central bank committees: different strategies, same effectiveness?," Working Paper Series 0488, European Central Bank.
  4. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Edwin J. Elton & T. Clifton Green, 1996. "Economic News and the Yield Curve: Evidence From the U.S. Treasury Market," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 96-13, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  5. Carlo Rosa & Giovanni Verga, 2006. "The Impact of Central Bank Announcements on Asset Prices in Real Time: Testing the Efficiency of the Euribor Futures Market," CEP Discussion Papers dp0764, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  6. Guthrie, Graeme & Wright, Julian, 2000. "Open mouth operations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 489-516, October.
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  17. Kerstin Bernoth & Jürgen von Hagen, 2004. "The Euribor Futures Market: Efficiency and the Impact of ECB Policy Announcements," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, 03.
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Cited by:
  1. Selva Demiralp & Hakan Kara & Pinar Ozlu, 2011. "Monetary Policy Communication Under Inflation Targeting : Do Words Speak Louder Than Actions?," Working Papers 1118, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  2. Alia Gizatulina, 2012. "Interpreting How Others Interpret It: Social Value of Public Information," CESifo Working Paper Series 3787, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Hussain, Syed Mujahid, 2011. "Simultaneous monetary policy announcements and international stock markets response: An intraday analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 752-764, March.
  4. Carlos Carvalho & Fernando Cordeiro & Juliana Vargas, 2013. "Just Words? A Quantitative Analysis of the Communication of the Central Bank of Brazil," Textos para discussão 617, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  5. Rosa, Carlo, 2013. "Market efficiency broadcasted live: ECB code words and euro exchange rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 167-178.
  6. Rosa, Carlo, 2011. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates to monetary policy actions and statements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 478-489, February.
  7. Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2009. "The communication policy of the European Central Bank: An overview of the first decade," DNB Working Papers 212, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  8. Dewachter, Hans & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Lecourt, Christelle, 2014. "The intra-day impact of communication on euro-dollar volatility and jumps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 131-154.
  9. Alia Gizatulina, 2013. "Wondering How Others Interpret It: Social Value of Public Information," Working Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2013_08, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.

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