Further Evidence on the Impact of Economic News on Interest Rates
AbstractWe investigate the shape of the term structure reaction of the US swap rates to announcements using several linear and non-linear time series models. We document the non-linearity of the market reaction to macroeconomic news. First, we find that the introduction of non linear models leads to the finding of a significant number of macroeconomic figures that actually produce an effect over the yield curve. Second, we noticed at least four types of patterns in the term structure reaction of interest rates across maturities, including the humpshaped one that is generally considered. Third, we propose a first interpretation and classification of these different shapes. Fourth we find that the existence of outliers in interest rates leads to an underestimation of the reaction of interest rates to announcements, explaining the different results obtained between high-frequency and daily datasets.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by SKEMA Business School in its journal Frontiers in Finance and Economics.
Volume (Year): 6 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
Pages: 1 - 45
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Macroeconomic Announcements; Interest Rates Dynamic; Outliers; Reaction Function; Principal Component Analysis.;
Other versions of this item:
- Ielpo, Florian & Guégan, Dominique, 2006. "Further evidence on the impact of economic news on interest rates," MPRA Paper 3425, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2007.
- Dominique Guegan & Florian Ielpo, 2007. "Further evidence on the impact of economic news on interest rates," UniversitÃ© Paris1 PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00188331, HAL.
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
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