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International Linkages and Macroeconomic News Effects on Interest Rate Volatility - Australia and the US'

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  • Kim, Suk-Joong
  • Sheen, Jeffrey

Abstract

We examine international linkages between daily time series of US and Australian 3 month Treasury Bills and 10 year Government Bonds from 1987-95, paying particular attention to the effects of macroeconomic announcements in both countries. The 2 country's interest rate data are modelled by a bivariate EGARCH formulation. The results suggest that market participants believed the Reserve Bank of Australia targetted the CPI, while the Federal Reserve targetted economic activity. US macroeconomic activity announcements significantly moved Australian interest rates, particularly at the short end. Australian interest rates moved significantly in response to the previous day's US interest rate shocks. The conditional volatilities of the Australian interest rate changes were also significantly influenced by lagged US interest rate shocks, as well as by surprises in US macroeconomic announcements. Some macroeconomic news announcements raised conditional volatilities, while others reduced them. Overall there was a remarkable and complex array of linkages between the 2 countries.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2123/6742
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Sydney, School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 11.

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Date of creation: Oct 1998
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Handle: RePEc:syd:wpaper:2123/6742

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Postal: Sydney, NSW 2006
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Web page: http://sydney.edu.au/arts/economics
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Cited by:
  1. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "Interdependence between the euro area and the US: what role for EMU?," Working Paper Series 0200, European Central Bank.
  2. Ellis Connolly & Marion Kohler, 2004. "News and Interest Rate Expectations: A Study of Six Central Banks," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-10, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  3. Menelaos Karanasos & J. Kim, . "Moments of the ARMA-EGARCH Model," Discussion Papers 00/29, Department of Economics, University of York.
  4. M. D. Mckenzie & R. D. Brooks, 2003. "The role of information in Hong Kong individual stock futures trading," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 123-131.
  5. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2004. "Equal size, equal role? interest rate interdependence between the euro area and the United States," International Finance Discussion Papers 800, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Tatsuyoshi Miyakoshi, 2006. "News and Asian Emerging Markets," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(03), pages 359-384.
  7. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Equal size, equal role? Interdependence between the euro area and the United States," Working Paper Series 0342, European Central Bank.
  8. Michael Graham & Jussi Nikkinen & Petri Sahlström, 2003. "Relative importance of scheduled macroeconomic news for stock market investors," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 153-165, June.
  9. Tho D.Q. Nguyen & Jian Wu, 2010. "Spillover impacts of the US macroeconomic news: Australian sectoral perspective," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 1753-1771.
  10. Renee Fry, 2004. "International demand and liquidity shocks in a SVAR model of the Australian economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(8), pages 849-863.
  11. Heidari, Hassan, 2010. "An Estimated Small Open Economy New-Keynesian Model of the Australian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 7-15, December.
  12. Renee Fry, 2002. "International SVAR Factor Modelling," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 109, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
  13. Kim, Suk-Joong & Nguyen, Do Quoc Tho, 2008. "The reaction of the Australian financial markets to the interest rate news from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the U.S. Fed," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 378-395, September.
  14. Kim, Suk-Joong & Sheen, Jeffrey, 2001. "Minute-by-minute dynamics of the Australian bond futures market in response to new macroeconomic information," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 117-137, April.
  15. Michael Ehrmann & David Sondermann, 2012. "The News Content of Macroeconomic Announcements: What if Central Bank Communication Becomes Stale?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(3), pages 1-53, September.

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