Forecasting the yield curve with linear factor models
AbstractIn this work we compare the interest rate forecasting performance of a broad class of linear models. The models are estimated through a MCMC procedure with data from the US and Brazilian markets. We show that a simple parametric specification has the best predictive power, but it does not outperform the random walk. We also find that macroeconomic variables and no-arbitrage conditions have little effect to improve the out-of-sample fit, while a financial variable (Stock Index) increases the forecasting accuracy.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal International Review of Financial Analysis.
Volume (Year): 20 (2011)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166
Yield curve forecasting; Macroeconomic variables; Affine models;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
- E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
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- Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2014. "The term structure of interest rates as predictor of stock returns: Evidence for the IBEX 35 during a bear market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 21-33.
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