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Analyzing interest rate risk: Stochastic volatility in the term structure of government bond yields

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  • Hautsch, Nikolaus
  • Ou, Yangguoyi

Abstract

We propose a Nelson–Siegel type interest rate term structure model where the underlying yield factors follow autoregressive processes with stochastic volatility. The factor volatilities parsimoniously capture risk inherent to the term structure and are associated with the time-varying uncertainty of the yield curve’s level, slope and curvature. Estimating the model based on US government bond yields applying Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques we find that the factor volatilities follow highly persistent processes. We show that yield factors and factor volatilities are closely related to macroeconomic state variables as well as the conditional variances thereof.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 36 (2012)
Issue (Month): 11 ()
Pages: 2988-3007

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:11:p:2988-3007

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

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Keywords: Term structure modeling; Yield curve risk; Stochastic volatility; Factor models; Macroeconomic fundamentals;

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Cited by:
  1. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2014. "Can spanned term structure factors drive stochastic yield volatility?," Working Paper Series 2014-3, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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