Term structure forecasting using macro factors and forecast combination
AbstractWe examine the importance of incorporating macroeconomic information and, in particular, accounting for model uncertainty when forecasting the term structure of U.S. interest rates. We start off by analyzing and comparing the forecast performance of several individual term structure models. Our results confirm and extend results found in previous literature that adding macroeconomic information, through factors extracted from a large number of individual series, tends to improve interest rate forecasts. We then show, however, that the predictive power of individual models varies over time significantly. Models with macro factors are the more accurate in and around recession periods. Models without macro factors do particularly well in low-volatility subperiods such as the late 1990s. We demonstrate that this problem of model uncertainty can be mitigated by combining individual model forecasts. Combining forecasts leads to encouraging gains in predictability, especially for longer-dated maturities, and importantly, these gains are consistent over time.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 993.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Michiel de Pooter & Francesco Ravazzolo & Dick van Dijk, 2010. "Term structure forecasting using macro factors and forecast combination," Working Paper 2010/01, Norges Bank.
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-05-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-05-02 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2010-05-02 (Forecasting)
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- Andrea Monticini & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014.
"Forecasting the intraday market price of money,"
DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza
def10, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
- repec:dgr:uvatin:2013041 is not listed on IDEAS
- Dick van Dijk & Siem Jan Koopman & Michel van der Wel & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "Forecasting Interest Rates with Shifting Endpoints," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-076/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Christian Kascha & Carsten Trenkler, 2011. "Cointegrated VARMA models and forecasting US interest rates," ECON - Working Papers 033, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
- repec:dgr:uvatin:2012076 is not listed on IDEAS
- Eran Raviv, 2013. "Prediction Bias Correction for Dynamic Term Structure Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-041/III, Tinbergen Institute.
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