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Forecasting the Yield Curve with Linear Factor Models

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  • Marco Shinobu Matsumura
  • Ajax Reynaldo Bello Moreira
  • José Valentim Machado Vicente

Abstract

In this work we compare the interest rate forecasting performance using a broad class of linear models. The models are estimated through a MCMC procedure with data from the US and Brazilian markets. We show that a simple parametric specification has the best predictive power, but it does not outperform the random walk. We also find that macroeconomic variables and no-arbitrage conditions have little effect to improve the out-of-sample fit, while a financial variable (stock index) increases the forecasting accuracy.

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File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps223.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 223.

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Date of creation: Nov 2010
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Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:223

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Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

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  1. Francis X. Diebold & Monika Piazzesi & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
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  7. Caio Almeida & Romeu Gomes & André Leite & Axel Simonsen & José Vicente, 2009. "Does Curvature Enhance Forecasting?," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(08), pages 1171-1196.
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  12. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables," NBER Working Papers 8363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338.
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  15. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
  16. Markus Leippold & Liuren Wu, 2002. "Asset Pricing Under The Quadratic Class," Finance 0207015, EconWPA.
  17. Cheridito, Patrick & Filipovic, Damir & Kimmel, Robert L., 2007. "Market price of risk specifications for affine models: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 123-170, January.
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  20. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Rodrigo Cabral & Richard Munclinger & Luiz Alves & Marco Rodriguez Waldo, 2011. "On Brazil’s Term Structure," IMF Working Papers 11/113, International Monetary Fund.

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