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Yield curve reaction to macroeconomic news in Europe : disentangling the US influence

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Author Info
Marie Brière () (Centre Emile Bernheim, Solvay Business School, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussel and Credit Agricole Asset Management SGR, Paris.)
Florian Ielpo () (Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne, Paris, France.)

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Abstract

This paper analyses the response of the Euro yield curve to macroeconomic and monetary policy announcements. We present a new methodology for estimating the reaction of the Euro swap curve to economic news, in a data-rich environment. Given the sharp degree of interdependence between Euro rates and US rates, we propose to use the factors of the US yield curve to disentangle the daily variation in Euro rates stemming from US influence and the variation resulting from European news. We highlight the importance of taking the US yield curve influence into account and investigate the shape of the Euro term structure reaction to a range of news types. We find that the impact of economic announcements on the yield curve shows different patterns according to the news and we provide a hierarchy of the economic figures that have the strongest impact on the different maturities.

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File URL: http://www.solvay.edu/EN/Research/Bernheim/documents/wp07038.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, 2007
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB) in its series Working Papers CEB with number 07-038.RS.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sol:wpaper:07-038

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Related research
Keywords: announcements; news; swap rates; yield curve; interest rates; Euro area.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997. "What moves the bond market?," Research Paper 9706, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Dominique Guégan & Florian Ielpo, 2007. "Further evidence on the impact of economic news on interest," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne b07062, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne. [Downloadable!]
  3. Linda Goldberg & Deborah Leonard, 2003. "What moves sovereign bond markets? The effects of economic news on U.S. and German yields," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. " How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-91, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Yields and the Federal Reserve," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 311-344, April.
  6. Marie Brière, 2006. "Market Reactions to Central Bank Communication Policies : Reading Interest Rate Options Smiles," Working Papers CEB 06-009.RS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB). [Downloadable!]
  7. Ielpo, Florian & Guégan, Dominique, 2006. "Further evidence on the impact of economic news on interest rates," MPRA Paper 3425, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  9. Charles T. Carlstrom, 1995. "A monetary policy paradox," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Aug 15. [Downloadable!]
  10. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "The term structure of announcement effects," Staff Reports 76, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Magnus Andersson & Lars Jul Hansen & Szabolcs Sebestyén, 2006. "Which news moves the euro area bond market?," Working Paper Series 631, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2002. "Interdependence between the euro area and the US: what role for EMU?," Working Paper Series 200, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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