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Yield curve reaction to macroeconomic news in Europe :disentangling the US influence

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  • Marie Brière
  • Florian Ielpo

Abstract

This paper analyses the response of the Euro yield curve to macroeconomic and monetary policy announcements. We present a new methodology for estimating the reaction of the Euro swap curve to economic news, in a data-rich environment. Given the sharp degree of interdependence between Euro rates and US rates, we propose to use the factors of the US yield curve to disentangle the daily variation in Euro rates stemming from US influence and the variation resulting from European news. We highlight the importance of taking the US yield curve influence into account and investigate the shape of the Euro term structure reaction to a range of news types. We find that the impact of economic announcements on the yield curve shows different patterns according to the news and we provide a hierarchy of the economic figures that have the strongest impact on the different maturities.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its series Working Papers CEB with number 07-038.RS.

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Length: 19 p.
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by:
Handle: RePEc:sol:wpaper:07-038

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Keywords: announcements; news; swap rates; yield curve; interest rates; Euro area.;

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References

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  1. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics.
  2. Charles T. Carlstrom, 1995. "A monetary policy paradox," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Aug 15.
  3. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "The term structure of announcement effects," Staff Reports 76, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997. "What moves the bond market?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 31-50.
  5. Dominique Guegan & Florian Ielpo, 2007. "Further evidence on the impact of economic news on interest rates," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00188331, HAL.
  6. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  7. Magnus Andersson & Lars Jul Hansen & Szabolcs Sebestyén, 2006. "Which news moves the euro area bond market?," Working Paper Series 631, European Central Bank.
  8. M. Ehrmann & M. Fratzscher, 2003. "Interdependence between the Euro area and the U.S.: what role for EMU?," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Linda Goldberg & Deborah Leonard, 2003. "What moves sovereign bond markets? The effects of economic news on U.S. and German yields," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep.
  10. Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. " How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-91, September.
  11. Marie Brière, 2006. "Market Reactions to Central Bank Communication Policies :Reading Interest Rate Options Smiles," Working Papers CEB 38, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  12. Dominique Guégan & Florian Ielpo, 2007. "Further evidence on the impact of economic news on interest," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne b07062, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  13. Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Yields and the Federal Reserve," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 311-344, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Ielpo, Florian & Guégan, Dominique, 2006. "Further evidence on the impact of economic news on interest rates," MPRA Paper 3425, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2007.
  2. Jakob Haan, 2008. "The effect of ECB communication on interest rates: An assessment," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 375-398, December.

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