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Opportunistic and deliberate disinflation under imperfect credibility

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Author Info
Antulio N. Bomfim
Glenn D. Rudebusch

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Abstract

One strategy for disinflation prescribes a deliberate path towards low inflation. A contrasting opportunistic approach eschews deliberate action and instead waits for unforeseen shocks to reduce inflation. This paper compares the ability of these two approaches to achieve disinflation---and at what cost. We analyze these issues using the Federal Reserve's FRB/US model, which allows alternative assumptions to be made about expectations held by agents in the economy; hence, the credibility of the central bank can be considered in assessing the cost of deliberate and opportunistic disinflations.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 1998-01.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1998-01

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance);

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C. & Hooker, Mark A., 1993. "Learning about monetary regime shifts in an overlapping wage contract model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 531-553, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 1996. "Moving endpoints and the internal consistency of agents' ex ante forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  3. Athanasios Orphanides & David H. Small & Volker Wieland & David W. Wilcox, 1997. "A quantitative exploration of the opportunistic approach to disinflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    Other versions:
  5. King, Mervyn, 1995. "Credibility and Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 42(1), pages 1-19, February.
  6. Chan G. Huh & Kevin J. Lansing, 1997. "Expectations, credibility, and disinflation in a small macroeconomic model," Working Paper 9713, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  8. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Robert Amano & Paul Fenton & David Tessier & Simon van Norden, 1996. "The credibility of monetary policy: a survey of the literature with some simple applications to Caanda," Meeting papers 9610001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  10. Antulio Bomfim & Robert Tetlow & Peter Von Zur Muehlen & John Williams, 1997. "Expectations, learning and the costs of disinflation: experiments using the FRB/US model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  11. F. Brayton & P. Tinsley, 1996. "A guide to FRB/US: a macroeconomic model of the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  12. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Athanasios Orphanides & David W. Wilcox, 1996. "The opportunistic approach to disinflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  14. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Sargent, Thomas J, 1978. "Estimation of Dynamic Labor Demand Schedules under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1009-44, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. P.A. Tinsley, 1993. "Fitting both data and theories: polynomial adjustment costs and error- correction decision rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Croushore, Dean & Koot, Ronald S., 1994. "A measure of federal reserve credibility," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 215-231, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Flint Brayton & Eileen Mauskopf & David Reifschneider & Peter Tinsley & John Williams, 1997. "The role of expectations in the FRB/US macroeconomic model," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Apr, pages 227-245. [Downloadable!]
  19. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Minford, Patrick & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2005. "Opportunistic Monetary Policy: an Alternative Rationalization," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2005/9, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Peter N. Ireland, 2005. "Changes in the Federal Reserve’s Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 607, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Maria Demertzis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Nicola Viegi, 2008. "A Measure for Credibility: Tracking US Monetary Developments," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/38, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Ruthira Naraidoo & Rangan Gupta, 2009. "Modelling monetary policy in South Africa: Focus on inflation targeting era using a simple learning rule," Working Papers 200904, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Yakov Ben-Haim & Maria Demertzis, 2008. "Confidence in Monetary Policy," DNB Working Papers 192, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Denise Côté & Carlos de Resende, 2008. "Globalization and Inflation: The Role of China," Working Papers 08-35, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  7. Troy Davig & Jeffrey R. Gerlach, 2006. "State-Dependent Stock Market Reactions to Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December. [Downloadable!]
  8. Marzo, Massimiliano & Strid, Ingvar & Zagaglia, Paolo, 2006. "Optimal Opportunistic Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Model," Research Papers in Economics 2006:8, Stockholm University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. René Lalonde, 2005. "Endogenous Central Bank Credibility in a Small Forward-Looking Model of the U.S. Economy," Working Papers 05-16, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  10. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Monetary policy inertia: fact or fiction?," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2005-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Livio Stracca & Ali Al-Nowaihi, 2002. "Non-standard Central Bank loss functions; skewed risks; and certainty equivalence," Working Paper Series 129, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Fève, P. & Matheron, J. & Sahuc, J-G., 2009. "Disinflation and unemployment in the euro area : A SVAR-based analysis," Documents de Travail 247, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  13. Mewael F. Tesfaselassie, 2008. "Central Bank Learning and Monetary Policy," Kiel Working Papers 1444, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  14. Maria Demertzis & Nicola Viegi, 2008. "Inflation Targets as Focal Points," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(1), pages 55-87, March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Ana Maria Herrera & Pinar Ozbay, 2005. "A Dynamic Model of Central Bank Intervention," Working Papers 0501, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
  16. Chan G. Huh & Kevin J. Lansing, 1998. "Expectations, credibility, and disinflation in a small macroeconomic model," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory and Econometrics 98-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Glenn Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2004. "A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Chan G. Huh & Kevin J. Lansing, 1998. "Federal Reserve credibility and inflation scares," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16. [Downloadable!]
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