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More on the Speed of Adjustment in Inventory Models

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Alan S. Blinder

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Abstract

When empirical stock-adjustment models of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods are estimated, there appear to be two local minima in the sum of squared residuals functions. At one local minimum, the estimated adjustment speed is typically quite high; at the other, it is typically quite low. Furthermore, finding two sets of estimates that fit the data almost equally well does not appear to be a quirk of this particular application. Rather, it stems from a fundamental identification problem that afflicts partial adjustment models of all kinds. In the specific context of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, the estimation procedure employed by Maccini and Rossana seems to pick out the solution with rapid adjustment (and high serial correlation in the disturbances) whereas the solution with slow adjustment (and little serial correlation) is more often the global minimum.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1913.

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Date of creation: Dec 1986
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1913

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. R. W. Hafer & Scott E. Hein, 1982. "Financial innovations and the interest elasticity of money demand: some historical evidence," Working Papers 1982-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Monetary policy inertia: fact or fiction?," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2005-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2008. "Inflation Target Shocks and Monetary Policy Inertia in the Euro Area," IDEI Working Papers 515, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Claus, I., 1997. "Modelling the behaviour of U.S. Inventories: A Cointegration-Euler Approach," Working Papers 97-19, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  4. Glenn Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2004. "A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Bartholomew Moore & Louis J Maccini & Huntley Schaller, 2002. "The Interest Rate Learning and Inventory Investment," Economics Working Paper Archive 512, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics, revised Apr 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Kenneth D. West, 1993. "Inventory Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Martin S. Eichenbaum, 1990. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Production Level and Production Cost Smoothing Models of Inventory Investment," NBER Working Papers 2523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Robert E. Carpenter & Steven M. Fazzari & Bruce C. Petersen, 1995. "Three Financing Constraint Hypotheses and Inventory Investment: New Tests With Time and Sectoral Heterogeneity," Macroeconomics 9510001, EconWPA, revised 09 Oct 1995. [Downloadable!]
  9. Alina Carare & Robert Tchaidze, 2005. "The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules: How Precisely Can We Estimate Them?," IMF Working Papers 05/148, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Daniele Coen-Pirani, 2004. "Markups, Aggregation, and Inventory Adjustment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1328-1353, December. [Downloadable!]
  11. Carrillo, J. & Fève, P. & Matheron, J., 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia or Persistent Shocks?," Documents de Travail 150, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  12. Carrillo, Julio & Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien, 2007. "Monetary Policy Inertia or Persistent Shocks: A DSGE Analysis," IDEI Working Papers 431, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Troy Davig & Jeffrey R. Gerlach, 2006. "State-Dependent Stock Market Reactions to Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December. [Downloadable!]
  14. Alejandro Diaz-Bautista & Julio R. Escandon, 2003. "A Simple Dynamic Model of Credit and Aggregate Demand," Macroeconomics 0308001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  15. Jeffrey A. Miron & Stephen P. Zeldes, 1989. "Seasonality, Cost Shocks, and the Production Smoothing Model of Inventories," NBER Working Papers 2360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Scott Schuh, 1996. "Evidence on the link between firm-level and aggregate inventory behavior," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  17. Steven N. Durlauf & Louis J. Maccini, 1993. "Measuring Noise in Inventory Models," NBER Working Papers 4487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. George J. Hall & John Rust, 1999. "An Empirical Model of Inventory Investment by Durable Commodity Intermediaries," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1228, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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