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Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?

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Author Info
Glenn D. Rudebusch

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Abstract

Many interpret estimated monetary policy rules as suggesting that central banks conduct very sluggish partial adjustment of short-term policy interest rates. In contrast, others argue that this appearance of policy inertia is an illusion and simply reflects the spurious omission of important persistent influences on the actual setting of policy. Similarly, the real-world implications of the theoretical arguments for policy inertia are open to debate. However, empirical evidence on policy gradualism obtained by examining expectations of future monetary policy embedded in the term structure of interest rates is definitive and indicates that the actual amount of policy inertia is quite low. 

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Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 2 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages:
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Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2006:q:4:a:4

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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  5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2005. "Assessing the Lucas Critique in Monetary Policy Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 245-72, April.
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  7. Refet Gurkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," Macroeconomics 0504013, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The Bond Yield "Conundrum" from a Macro-Finance Perspective," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(S1), pages 83-109, December. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
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  19. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 907-31, November.
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  20. Blinder, Alan S, 1986. "More on the Speed of Adjustment in Inventory Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 355-65, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Richard Dennis, 2006. "The policy preferences of the US Federal Reserve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 55-77. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Bomfim, Antulio N & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2000. "Opportunistic and Deliberate Disinflation under Imperfect Credibility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 707-21, November.
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  23. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 405-436 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  25. Refet Gürkaynak & Brian Sack, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words?The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 323, Society for Computational Economics.
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  31. Pivetta, Frederic & Reis, Ricardo, 2007. "The persistence of inflation in the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1326-1358, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  32. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
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  33. William Poole, 2003. "Fed transparency: how, not whether," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 1-8. [Downloadable!]
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  34. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2002. "Dynamic Inconsistencies: Counterfactual Implications of a Class of Rational-Expectations Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1013-1028, September. [Downloadable!]
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  35. Alina Carare & Robert Tchaidze, 2005. "The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules: How Precisely Can We Estimate Them?," IMF Working Papers 05/148, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  36. Richard Dennis, 2005. "Inflation targeting under commitment and discretion," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-13. [Downloadable!]
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  38. Söderström, Ulf, 1999. "Should central banks be more aggressive?," Working Paper Series 84, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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  41. Andrew Ang & Sen Dong, 2005. "No-Arbitrage Taylor Rules," 2005 Meeting Papers 22, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
  42. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  43. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  45. S Derlind, Paul & S Derstr M, Ulf & Vredin, Anders, 2005. "Dynamic Taylor Rules And The Predictability Of Interest Rates," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(03), pages 412-428, June. [Downloadable!]
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  51. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1985. "Reinterpreting money demand regressions Errata," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 211-212, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  54. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  59. Anderson, Gary & Moore, George, 1985. "A linear algebraic procedure for solving linear perfect foresight models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 247-252. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  61. Sack, Brian, 2000. "Does the fed act gradually? A VAR analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 229-256, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  62. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2002. "Eurosystem monetary targeting: Lessons from U.S. data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 417-442, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  63. Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 2000. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 165-171, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  64. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 1999. "The Taylor Rule: A Useful Monetary Policy Benchmark for the Euro Area?," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 85-116, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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