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Robust optimal monetary policy in a forward-looking model with parameter and shock uncertainty

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Author Info
Marc P. Giannoni (Columbia University, New York, USA; NBER, Cambridge, MA, USA; and CEPR, London, UK)

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Abstract

This paper characterizes a robust optimal policy rule in a simple forward-looking model, when the policymaker faces uncertainty about model parameters and shock processes. We show that the robust optimal policy rule is likely to involve a stronger response of the interest rate to fluctuations in inflation and the output gap than is the case in the absence of uncertainty. Thus parameter uncertainty alone does not necessarily justify a small response of monetary policy to perturbations. However, uncertainty may amplify the degree of 'super-inertia' required by optimal monetary policy. We finally discuss the sensitivity of the results to alternative assumptions. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.934
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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2007-v22.1/
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 22 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 179-213
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:22:y:2007:i:1:p:179-213

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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  4. Levin, Andrew T. & Williams, John C., 2003. "Robust monetary policy with competing reference models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 945-975, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Andrew T. Levin & John C. Williams, 2003. "Robust monetary policy with competing reference models," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2003-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2003. "Robust European monetary policy rules," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(14), pages 889-894, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Küster, Keith & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "Insurance Policies for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 4956, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Model Uncertainty and Policy Evaluation: Some Theory and Empirics," NBER Working Papers 10916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Pau Rabanal, 2003. "The Cost Channel of Monetary Policy: Further Evidence for the United States and the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 03/149, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Meixing DAI & Eleftherios SPYROMITROS, 2008. "Monetary policy, asset prices and model uncertainty," Working Papers of BETA 2008-15, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, ULP, Strasbourg. [Downloadable!]
  7. Fabrizio Zampolli, . "Optimal monetary policy in a regime-switching economy: the response to abrupt shifts in exchange rate dynamics," Bank of England working papers 297, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  8. Oreste Tristani, 2007. "Model misspecification, the equilibrium natural interest rate and the equity premium," Working Paper Series 808, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. A. Hakan Kara, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy, Commitment, and Imperfect Credibility," Working Papers 0301, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
  10. Martin Ellison & Thomas J. Sargent, 2009. "A defence of the FOMC," Economics Series Working Papers 457, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: I. General Theory," Levine's Bibliography 506439000000000384, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Robert Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2004. "Avoiding Nash Inflation: Bayesian and Robus Responses to Model Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(4), pages 869-899, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Charles Bean & Jens D.J. Larsen & Kalin Nikolov, 2002. "Financial frictions and the monetary transmission mechanism: theory; evidence and policy implications," Working Paper Series 113, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  14. Meixing Dai & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2009. "Accountability and Transparency about Central Bank Preferences for Model Robustness," Working Papers of BETA 2009-18, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, ULP, Strasbourg. [Downloadable!]
  15. A. Hakan Kara, 2002. "Robust Targeting Rules for Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 0208, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
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