The Monetary Policy Committee's Reaction Function: An Exercise in Estimation
AbstractOwing to lags in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, central banks put much weight on forecasts of the future paths of output and inflation. So there has been considerable recent interest in forward-looking Taylor-type reaction functions. Using publicly available data on the Monetary Policy Committees forecasts for UK inflation and output growth, 1997-2003, we examine how the coefficients in such reaction functions changed as we switched between ex post forecasts those published after, and incorporating, the preceding interest rate decision and ex ante forecasts those presented to the MPC before that decision and also as we vary the (forecast) horizon, out to eight quarters ahead. In our data set, the coefficients vary sensitively as the horizon/forecast basis changes. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that the MPC tried aggressively to eliminate any predicted, ex ante, deviation of inflation from target immediately it emerged, with no apparent indication of intended inertia, or gradualism, in response. Nevertheless the time path of official short term interest rates during these years shows the usual record of consecutive similarly-signed small steps.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by De Gruyter in its journal The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics.
Volume (Year): 5 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (August)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.degruyter.com
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Troy Davig & Jeffrey R. Gerlach, 2006. "State-Dependent Stock Market Reactions to Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
- John Driffill & Zeno Rotondi, 2007.
"Inertia in Taylor Rules,"
Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance
0720, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Pierre L. Siklos & Martin T. Bohl, 2007.
"Asset Prices as Indicators of Euro Area Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment of Their Role in a Taylor Rule,"
Working Paper Series
32-07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jul 2007.
- Pierre Siklos & Martin Bohl, 2009. "Asset Prices as Indicators of Euro Area Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment of Their Role in a Taylor Rule," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 39-59, February.
- P. Siklos & M. Bohl, 2006. "Asset Prices as Indicators of Euro Area Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment of Their Role in a Taylor Rule," Working Papers eg0053, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 2006.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2006.
"Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?,"
International Journal of Central Banking,
International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Golla).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.