The Implications of Uncertainty for Monetary Policy
AbstractThis paper uses a simple model of the Australian economy to empirically examine the consequences of parameter uncertainty for optimal monetary policy. Optimal policy responses are derived for a monetary authority that targets inflation and output stability. Parameter uncertainty is characterised by the estimated distribution of the model coefficient estimates. Learning is ruled out, so the monetary authority can commit to its ex ante policy response. For certain shocks, taking account of parameter uncertainty can recommend more, rather than less, activist use of the policy instrument. While this finding is specific to the model specification, parameter estimates and the shocks analysed, it contrasts with the widely held belief that the generic implication of parameter uncertainty is more conservative policy. Copyright 2003. The Economic Society of Australia.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by The Economic Society of Australia in its journal The Economic Record.
Volume (Year): 79 (2003)
Issue (Month): 246 (09)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Central Council Administration, L.P.O. Box 2161, Hawthorn VIC 3122
Phone: 61 3 9497 4140
Fax: 61 3 9497 4140
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0013-0249
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Geoffrey Shuetrim & Christopher Thompson, 1999. "The Implications of Uncertainty for Monetary Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-10, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Philip Lowe, 1997. "Introduction to Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Philip Lowe (ed.), Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Jeroen J.M. Kremers & Neil R. Ericsson & Juan J. Dolado, 1992.
"The power of cointegration tests,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
431, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Philip Lowe & Luci Ellis, 1997. "The Smoothing of Official Interest Rates," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Philip Lowe (ed.), Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1996. "Intercept Corrections and Structural Change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 475-94, Sept.-Oct.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2006.
"Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?,"
International Journal of Central Banking,
International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
- Robert Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2004.
"Avoiding Nash Inflation: Bayesian and Robus Responses to Model Uncertainty,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(4), pages 869-899, October.
- Robert J. Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2002. "Avoiding Nash inflation: Bayesian and robust responses to model uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-9, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Soderstrom, Ulf, 2002.
" Monetary Policy with Uncertain Parameters,"
Scandinavian Journal of Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(1), pages 125-45.
- Söderström, Ulf, 1999. "Monetary policy with uncertain parameters," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 308, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Söderström, Ulf, 1999. "Monetary policy with uncertain parameters," Working Paper Series 83, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Söderström, Ulf, 2000. "Monetary policy with uncertain parameters," Working Paper Series 0013, European Central Bank.
- Simon Hall & Chris Salmon & Tony Yates & Nicoletta Batini, 1999. "Uncertainty and Simple Monetary Policy Rules - An illustration for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 96, Bank of England.
- Guido Cazzavillan & Michael Donadelli, 2010. "Understanding the Global Demand Collapse: Empirical Analysis and Optimal Policy Response," Working Papers 2010_18, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Yuong Ha, 2000. "Uncertainty about the length of the monetary policy transmission lag: implications for monetary policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luca Onorante & Paolo Paesani, 2009.
"Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the Euro Area,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
909, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Guglielmo Caporale & Luca Onorante & Paolo Paesani, 2012. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 597-615, October.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luca Onorante & Paolo Paesani, 2009. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 2720, CESifo Group Munich.
- Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Paesani, Paolo & Onorante, Luca, 2010. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1229, European Central Bank.
- repec:fip:fedfap:2002-19 is not listed on IDEAS
- Daniel Laskar, 2006. "Incertitude sur l'effet global ou sur les délais d'action de la politique économique : politique robuste et activisme," Working Papers halshs-00590542, HAL.
- Andrew Stone & Troy Wheatley & Louise Wilkinson, 2005. "A Small Model of the Australian Macroeconomy: An Update," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-11, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2002. "La politique monétaire face à l'incertitude : un survol méthodologique des contributions relatives à la zone euro," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 65(1), pages 177-200.
- Ben Martin, 1999. "Caution and gradualism in monetary policy under uncertainty," Bank of England working papers 105, Bank of England.
- repec:fip:fedfap:2005-19 is not listed on IDEAS
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.