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Revealing the secrets of the temple: the value of publishing central bank interest rate projections

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Author Info
Glenn D. Rudebusch
John C. Williams

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Abstract

The modern view of monetary policy stresses its role in shaping the entire yield curve of interest rates in order to achieve various macroeconomic objectives. A crucial element of this process involves guiding financial market expectations of future central bank actions. Recently, a few central banks have started to explicitly signal their future policy intentions to the public, and two of these banks have even begun publishing their internal interest rate projections. We examine the macroeconomic effects of direct revelation of a central bank's expectations about the future path of the policy rate. We show that, in an economy where private agents have imperfect information about the determination of monetary policy, central bank communication of interest rate projections can help shape financial market expectations and may improve macroeconomic performance.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2006-31.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2006-31

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Keywords: Monetary policy

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  5. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 9884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Petra Geraats, 2005. "Transparency and Reputation: The Publication of Central Bank Forecasts," Topics in Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 5(1), pages 1277-1277. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Jon Faust & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1998. "Transparency and credibility: monetary policy with unobservable goals," International Finance Discussion Papers 605, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  8. Reifschneider, David & Willams, John C, 2000. "Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Era," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 936-66, November.
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  10. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2007. "Accounting for a Shift in Term Structure Behavior with No-Arbitrage and Macro-Finance Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 395-422, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Refet Gürkaynak & Brian Sack, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words?The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 323, Society for Computational Economics.
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  22. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December. [Downloadable!]
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  24. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
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  32. John C. Williams, 2006. "Monetary policy in a low inflation economy with learning," Working Paper Series 2006-30, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  35. Marvin Goodfriend, 1985. "Monetary mystique : secrecy and central banking," Working Paper 85-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Marc-André Gosselin, 2007. "Central Bank Performance under Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 07-18, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Chulia-Soler, H & Martens, M.P.E. & Dijk, D.J.C. van, 2007. "The Effects of Federal Funds Target Rate Changes on S&P100 Stock Returns, Volatilities, and Correlations," Research Paper ERS-2007-066-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  3. Janet L. Yellen, 2006. "Enhancing Fed credibility," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar 17. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Hughes Hallett Andrew & Acocella Nicola, 2008. "Policy games, policy neutrality and Tinbergen controllability under rational expectations," wp.comunite 0034, Department of Communication, University of Teramo. [Downloadable!]
  5. Hughes Hallett Andrew & Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Acocella Nicola, 2008. "Controllability under rational expectations," wp.comunite 0042, Department of Communication, University of Teramo. [Downloadable!]
  6. George A. Kahn, 2007. "Communicating a policy path: the next frontier in central bank transparency?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 25-51. [Downloadable!]
  7. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2008. "Purdah - on the rationale for central bank silence around policy meetings," Working Paper Series 868, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2007. "Coordinating Expectations in Monetary Policy," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000956, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Marcel Peter & Geoffrey Heenan & Scott Roger, 2006. "Implementing Inflation Targeting: Institutional Arrangements, Target Design, and Communications," IMF Working Papers 06/278, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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