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Have Increases in Federal Reserve Transparency Improved Private Sector Interest Rate Forecasts?

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Author Info
Swanson, Eric T.

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Abstract

Yes. This paper shows that, since the late 1980s, U.S. financial markets and private sector forecasters have become (1) better able to forecast the federal funds rate at horizons out to several months, (2) less surprised by Federal Reserve announcements, (3) more certain of their interest rate forecasts ex ante, as measured by interest rate options, and (4) less diverse in the cross-sectional variety of their interest rate forecasts. We also present evidence that strongly suggests increases in Federal Reserve transparency played a role: for example, private sector forecasts of GDP and inflation have not experienced similar improvements over the same period, indicating that the improvement in interest rate forecasts has been special.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/mcb.2006.0046
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 38 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (April)
Pages: 791-819
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:38:y:2006:i:3:p:791-819

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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  1. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Andrew T. Levin & Andrew N. Marder & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Inflation Targeting and the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in The Western Hemisphere," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 400, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Vivek B. Arora, 2007. "Monetary Policy Transparency and Financial Market Forecasts in South Africa," IMF Working Papers 07/123, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. James D. Hamilton, 2007. "Daily Changes in Fed Funds Futures Prices," NBER Working Papers 13112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Paul Hubert, 2009. "An Empirical Review of Federal Reserve’s Informational Advantage," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
  5. Kenneth B. Petersen & Vladimir Pozdnyakov, 2008. "Predicting the Fed," Working papers 2008-07, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Transparency, Disclosure, and the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 179-225, March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Helge Berger & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2006. "Geography or skills - What explains Fed watchers’ forecast accuracy of US monetary policy?," Working Paper Series 695, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. James D. Hamilton, 2007. "Assessing Monetary Policy Effects Using Daily Fed Funds Futures Contracts," NBER Working Papers 13569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Shu Wu, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Long-term Interest Rates," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200512, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2005. [Downloadable!]
  10. Wei Xiong & Hongjun Yan, 2006. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 12781, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Andrew Swiston, 2007. "Where Have the Monetary Surprises Gone? The Effects of FOMC Statements," IMF Working Papers 07/185, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Andrew T. Levin & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Does inflation targeting anchor long-run inflation expectations? evidence from long-term bond yields in the U.S., U.K., and Sweden," Working Paper Series 2006-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Silvio Colarossi & Andrea Zaghini, 2007. "Gradualism, Transparency and Improved Operational Framework: A Look at the Overnight Volatility Transmission," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/16, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
  14. Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2009. "The Announcement of Monetary Policy Intentions," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 720, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  15. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Assessing monetary policy effects using daily federal funds futures contracts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 377-394. [Downloadable!]
  16. Silvio Colarossi & Andrea Zaghini, 2009. "Gradualism, transparency and the improved operational framework: a look at the overnight volatility transmission," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 710, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  17. Petra Geraats, 2009. "Trends in Monetary Policy Transparency," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  18. Kurz, Mordecai, 2006. "Beauty contests under private information and diverse beliefs: how different?," MPRA Paper 233, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2006. [Downloadable!]
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