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Federal Reserve transparency and financial market forecasts of short-term interest rates

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Eric T. Swanson

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Abstract

The 1990s and early 2000s witnessed an unprecedented increase in central bank transparency around the world, yet there has been little empirical work that convincingly demonstrates any economic benefits of increased central bank transparency. This paper shows that, since the late 1980s, U.S, financial markets and private sector forecasters have become: 1) better able to forecast the federal funds rate at horizons out to several months, 2) less surprised by Federal Reserve announcements, 3) more certain of their interest rate forecasts ex ante, as measured by interest rate options, and 4) less diverse in the cross-sectional variety of their interest rate forecasts. We also show that increases in Federal Reserve transparency are likely to have played a role: for example, private sector forecasts of GDP and inflation have not experienced similar improvements over the same period, indicating that the improvement in interest rate forecasts has been special.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2004-06.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2004-06

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Related research
Keywords: Monetary policy ; Transparency in government;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2002. "Market-based measures of monetary policy expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Demertzis, Maria & Hughes Hallett, Andrew, 2002. "Central Bank Transparency in Theory and Practice," CEPR Discussion Papers 3639, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. William Poole & Robert H & Rasche & Daniel L. Thornton, 2002. "Market anticipations of monetary policy actions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 65-94. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Eric Swanson & Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Identifying the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates Using High Frequency Data," NBER Working Papers 9660, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. William Poole & Robert Rasche, 2000. "Perfecting the Market's Knowledge of Monetary Policy," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 255-298, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
  7. Faust, Jon & Swanson, Eric T. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2004. "Identifying VARS based on high frequency futures data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1107-1131, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Lange, Joe & Sack, Brian & Whitesell, William, 2003. " Anticipations of Monetary Policy in Financial Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 889-909, December.
  9. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. William Poole, 1999. "Monetary policy rules?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 3-12. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 13932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Menno Middeldorp & Clemens Kool & Stephanie Rosenkranz, 2007. "Listening Without Understanding," Working Papers 07-19, Utrecht School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2009. "The communication policy of the European Central Bank: An overview of the first decade," DNB Working Papers 212, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Min Fan, 2006. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, the Term Structure and Time-varying Risk Premia," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 259-285, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Janet L. Yellen, 2006. "Enhancing Fed credibility," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar 17. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Edward Kutsoati & Sharun Mukand, 2004. "Expectations and the Central Banker: Making Decisions the Market Expects to See? [revised]," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0418, Department of Economics, Tufts University. [Downloadable!]
  7. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2006. "Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections," NBER Working Papers 12638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Janet L. Yellen, 2005. "Policymaking on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): transparency and continuity," Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue May 31. [Downloadable!]
  9. Marie Musard-Gies, 2005. "Do ECB's statements steer short-term and long-term interest rates in the euro zone?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 56, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Richhild Moessner & William Nelson, 2008. "Central bank policy rate guidance and financial market functioning," BIS Working Papers 246, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  11. Beechey, Meredith, 2004. "Excess Sensitivity and Volatility of Long Interest Rates: The Role of Limited Information in Bond Markets," Working Paper Series 173, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  12. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Explaining monetary policy in press conferences," Working Paper Series 767, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Lavan Mahadeva, . "A model of market surprises," Bank of England working papers 327, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  14. Geraats, Petra M. & Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Cruijsen, Carin A.B. van der, 2006. "Does central bank transparancy reduce interes rates?," Discussion Paper 11, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. TUYSUZ, Sukriye, 2007. "Central Bank transparency and the U.S. interest rates level and volatility response to U.S. news," MPRA Paper 5217, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  16. Chris Downing & Stephen Oliner, 2004. "The term structure of commercial paper rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & van der Cruijsen, Carin A B, 2007. "The Economic Impact of Central Bank Transparency: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 6070, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Peter Lildholdt & Anne Vila Wetherilt, . "Anticipation of monetary policy in UK financial markets," Bank of England working papers 241, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  19. Geraats, P.M, 2005. "Transparency of Monetary Policy: Theory and Practice," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0549, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. John B. Carlson & Ben R. Craig & William R. Melick, 2005. "Recovering market expectations of FOMC rate changes with options on federal funds futures," Working Paper 0507, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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