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Targeting Inflation by Constant-Interest-Rate Forecasts

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Author Info
Leitemo, Kai

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Abstract

This paper reviews the concept of constant-interest-rate inflation forecast (CIR) targeting. It stresses the time-inconsistent nature of CIR targeting and provides a new method for constructing CIR forecasts consistently in the context of models with forward-looking variables. A dynamic New Keynesian model with forward-looking price setting is used as an illustration, suggesting that the main reason for choosing a relatively long forecast targeting horizon lies in the monetary authorities' objective to smooth interest rate movements, as greater nominal and real stabilization is achieved at a relatively short inflation forecast targeting horizon.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 35 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 (August)
Pages: 609-26
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:35:y:2003:i:4:p:609-26

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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  1. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," NBER Working Papers 9421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Michael Woodford, 2005. "Central Bank Communication and Policy Effectiveness," NBER Working Papers 11898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Bennett McCallum, 2004. "On the Relationship Between Determinate and MSV Solutions in Linear RE Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Michal Skorepa & Viktor Kotlan, 2003. "Inflation Targeting: to Forecast or to Simulate," Macroeconomics 0304007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2006. "Revealing the secrets of the temple: the value of publishing central bank interest rate projections," Working Paper Series 2006-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Are Constant Interest Rate Forecasts Modest Interventions? Evidence from an Estimated Open Economy DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 180, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  7. Lars E. O. Svensson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Implementing Optimal Policy through Inflation-Forecast Targeting," NBER Working Papers 9747, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Berg, Claes & Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders, 2004. "How Useful are Simple Rules for Monetary Policy? The Swedish Experience," Working Paper Series 169, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  9. Michael Woodford, 2007. "Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy: Policy Rules in Practice," NBER Working Papers 13716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. W. Douglas McMillin & James S. Fackler, . "Estimating the Inflation-Output Variability Frontier with Inflation Targeting: A VAR Approach," Departmental Working Papers 2006-17, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Svensson, Lars E O, 2002. "The Inflation Forecast and the Loss Function," CEPR Discussion Papers 3365, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Lars Svensson, 2006. "Optimal Inflation Targeting: Further Developments of Inflation Targeting," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 403, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  13. Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders, 2001. "Forecast-based Monetary Policy in Sweden 1992-1998: A View from Within," Working Paper Series 120, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  14. Bhattacharjee, A. & Holly, S., 2005. "Inflation Targeting, Committee Decision Making and Uncertainty: The case of the Bank of England’s MPC," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0530, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Leitemo,K., 1999. "Inflation targeting strategies in small open economies," Memorandum 21/1999, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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